Translated by Ollie Richardson

11:41:23
27/03/2017

politnavigator.net

Aleksandr Chalenko, the journalist from Kiev who moved to Moscow after the victory of Euromaidan stated to Politnavigator seven reasons why a State coup can’t be repeated neither in Minsk, nor in Moscow today.

“Neither in Moscow, nor in Minsk is a Maidan possible. More precisely, its victory as in Kiev isn’t possible. For this there is a set of the reasons.

Firstly, a Maidan will never win against a city where the opponents of the current authorities are in a minority. In Moscow and Minsk, unlike Kiev, they are in the minority.

Secondly, in the country for a victory of Maidan protesters have to be major political forces, autonomous and independent of the authorities, and they have to be parliamentary parties. Neither in Russia, nor in Belarus is this true.

Thirdly, independent oligarchical groups are not present that would financially support protesters, because they need to eat and drink every day. They need to feed their families.

Fourthly, serious and authoritative support of the West, which wouldn’t allow the authorities in power to sweep away a Maidan by force is necessary. Neither for Putin, nor for Lukashenko is the West in this question a ‘strict father’, as it was for Yanukovych.

Fifthly, there is no leading alternative to the incumbent President who could have a serious rating in the country, and in the event of a Maidan victory could take the place of the President. Navalny isn’t an alternative to Putin. In general nothing is known about Lukashenko’s alternative.

Sixthly, the Kiev experience has shown that for a victory of a second Maidan, combative groups are necessary. Without it Maidan wouldn’t score a victory. There are no such combative groups neither in Russia, nor in Belarus.

And here in Russia on the side of the authorities in power they are – for example, the Union of Donbass Volunteers, which totals over 10,000 people in its ranks.

Finally, the psychological reason. The authorities have to be uncertain in themselves and in their own, as was the case in Kiev. Unlike Yanukovych, Putin and Lukashenko stand on their own two feet,” explained Chalenko.

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