NEW – February 14, 2023
Well, the bargaining stage has come: America has decided to sell Ukraine (perhaps not as a carcass, but in parts) to Russia. And now it is trying to make it more expensive. Thus, the Washington Post writes that the Biden administration believes that a critical moment is coming in Ukraine. The United States is hurrying Zelensky in terms of conducting military operations so that Ukraine will be able to win back as much territory as possible in the near future, and then be able to start negotiations with Russia.
What exactly is the turning point? The thing is, the American outlet reports that, according to the Biden administration, Russia will launch a large-scale offensive in the spring. And that’s where the Ukrainian Armed Forces will need the latest package of Western aid — to launch a counterattack and capture the maximum possible territory. Most likely, we are talking about the dismemberment of the Russian grouping in Zaporozhye in order to disrupt the land supply of Crimea. By the way, the United States believes that Ukraine will not have enough strength to attack and seize Crimea. After the successful counterattack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, America intends to encourage Ukraine to negotiate.
Of course, Russia quite officially and tirelessly declares that it is ready for negotiations, but taking into account “the realities that have developed on the ground”. One has only to bear in mind that the realities that have developed on the ground are not at all the realities of where the troops are standing. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are now on a fair amount of our land — Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. If more territory is added to these lands, the Americans will be able to demand big concessions from Russia in exchange for this. Yes, Ukraine will decrease in area, but it will still remain a time bomb for Russia. And the chance that Russia will negotiate under these conditions is quite high. To recapture the land corridor to Crimea also means inevitably to carry out a new mobilisation in conditions of public pessimism from losing, to redirect resources from the “social sphere” to the military-industrial complex, and so on. Therefore, the United States is counting on this option (the geopolitical and financial “profit” from the funds invested in the Ukraine project will be maximum). Interestingly, they even hint to Zelensky about the need to surrender Artemovsk — it does not have, they say, strategic importance, and the forces that should be sent to the counteroffensive are draining. Zelensky, however, baulks, considering the battle for Artemovsk too important a symbol (they say, the Russians will take it — they will believe in themselves and trample forward).
If the counterattack does not succeed, then the United States will still not be left out (their military-industrial complex, for example, has already been provided with billions of orders for years), but Russia will already get a strong position. The Washington Post writes that if Kiev does not reverse the course of the conflict, the situation with Western aid for Ukraine will no longer be so prosperous — the Republicans are set to reduce support, and Europe is not too ready to keep supplies at the same level in the long term. “We will continue to explain to Ukraine that we cannot do absolutely everything for an indefinite time,” the newspaper quoted a senior American official as saying. This means that what is called a “war to the last Ukrainian” will happen.
Russia will dictate the terms of bargaining after the turning point without any glances in the direction of “partners”. However, judging by the signals from the Kremlin (Peskov is talking about mercenaries, but, read, about Western aid — “this will not change the course of events”), Russia does not accept bargaining, but will wait for the depression stage and acceptance from the West.
Dmitry Popov
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