NEW – July 4, 2022
The author Atomic Cherry raised an important topic of the further military–technical transformation of Ukraine, where the central place is occupied by the strategy of the United States and Britain in relation to Russia.
“So, we continue from where we left off two months ago – with Western supplies and lend-lease for Ukraine (especially since no decent analysis on this topic was done anyway).
I will start with one fact that is not obvious to the vast majority of people: in conditions of intensive hostilities, the most important item of assistance from the allies is economic assistance. This was once the case with the Soviet Union, whose economy was directly connected to the British and American during the Second World War, so at the moment assistance is being provided to Ukraine, whose economy (by the way, is very closely connected with the EU long before the events of recent months) is connected to the European Union and the United States.
What does this mean in practice? Logistics support – from food supplies to fuel and medicines. Assistance in providing energy resources, strategically important materials for industry (I’ll tell you a secret – the Ukrainian defence industry, for example, is still functioning and continues to produce weapons, components for them, is engaged in the deconservation of equipment, repairs, and so on), finances and other things.
In a word, the United States, the EU and the Commonwealth countries give the Ukrainian government the opportunity to provide its citizens with everything necessary, support the functioning of the state and its ability to conduct military operations.
And this is a much more significant help than the supply of, say, 5,000 tanks.
Now let’s turn directly to military assistance, which is equally underestimated both in Ukraine and the Russian Federation. A weapon is not a thing in itself, and one or another weapon system directly affects the strategic picture of the course of hostilities.
Western states have already turned the whole course of the war in Ukraine with their supplies. Mass deliveries of infantry anti–tank systems have put a bold cross on any attempts to conduct manoeuvre warfare by the Russian Federation – tank deployments are now simply impossible. Mass deliveries of portable air defence systems have created strategic restrictions on the actions of Russian aviation, which no longer risks operating at operational depth and has generally minimised its appearance on the battlefield (the number of sorties is steadily decreasing, despite the increased intensity of fighting). Deliveries of anti-ship missiles literally ‘squeezed out’ the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation from the northwestern waters of the Black Sea and forced them to abandon amphibious operations in the Odessa area.
This is just the tip of the iceberg – I could continue the list for a long time, mentioning drones, communication systems, artillery, radars… The only important thing is that even such limited, but thoughtful assistance radically changed the picture of the fighting.
And also… it’s not lend-lease.
It hasn’t started yet.
This is just a series of individual deliveries, and the lend-lease itself is planned by the United States of America for the autumn. It implies retraining of the Ukrainian army in accordance with the standards of the Alliance and mass deliveries of modern weapons, including heavy armoured vehicles, artillery systems, air defence and, possibly, even aviation complexes. Despite the fact that the lend-lease law was signed back in May, it takes several months to organise the process. It includes the training of military personnel, the demothballing/production of equipment, and, most importantly, analytical work and the study of logistics issues.
Roughly speaking, now a number of European and American military structures and analytical centers are actively working to calculate the most suitable and necessary weapons systems for the Armed Forces, calculate their number, optimal delivery routes, and so on. Such organisational issues take more than one month, but, however, given the front line that has practically not changed in May-June, both Ukraine and the countries providing it with military and economic assistance have time to prepare.
For example, the US government is currently considering more than 1,300 applications from 800 arms manufacturing companies wishing to participate in the implementation of a military order for Ukraine, and chooses the best conditions.
This is a gigantic flywheel that is just beginning to gain momentum.”
At the same time, I think it is appropriate to give a couple of comments.
1. I do not see in the military supplies of the West a miracle weapon that saved Ukraine. The success of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was caused primarily by Russia’s unwillingness to enter into a conflict that our country itself started. There was no giveaway war, and reality came into its own, destroying the illusions imposed on the leadership of the Russian Federation about overwhelming military superiority. The stability of the UAF, which fought mainly with Soviet weapons, caused the collapse of the original plans.
2. Saturation with mobile MANPADS also did not become the “magic wand” of the UAF. At the first stage, the Russian Aerospace Forces proved to be an extremely effective combat force, providing significant support to the ground group. The situation was changed by the Ukrainian air defence, consisting of Soviet “Buk” and S-300 complexes, which Russia’s aerospace and ground forces could not destroy. Initially, the Russian side had a chance of suppressing Ukrainian air defences, if such a task had been set. But this did not happen and the time was lost. The reason was conceptual blindness, the military-industrial complex simply did not have methods of complex suppression, and the ground grouping did not consider air defence systems as a priority target.
3. There is no evidence of massive economic assistance that Ukraine receives. There is a strictly dosed palliative, which allows avoiding default. The country’s budget increases its deficit part every month, with near-zero incomes.
4. What the author is right about is that the complete rearmament of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is an uncontested reality, and this will happen in any case, whether Russia opts for a truce, or the war will continue. Ukraine will be saturated with weapons, and this will not be a palliative of the first stage, when modern types were transferred in doses, and the main assistance came from the stocks of Soviet weapons of the Warsaw Bloc countries. In the autumn, modern air defence systems, shock missile systems and high-precision artillery ammunition will have their say. Himars MLRS systems, which are sent to the UAF piece by piece, have already shown their destructive potential, based primarily on accuracy. In the future, Ukraine will be given guided munitions based on this platform, with a range of up to 300 km.
5. The key issue is the strategic plan. It is obvious that Ukraine is preparing for a large–scale offensive, which should take place in August-September. In my opinion, the promising direction is the South – Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. Modern types of weapons should bring Ukraine not only a military victory, but also act as a means of pressure on Russia in order to negotiate and end the conflict. By means of pressure, I mean the technical capability received by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to strike deep into Russia, including Crimea and the main transport arteries.
I want to emphasise that the problem is not in Ukraine, and not the miracle weapons supplied by the United States, but the “strange war” that Russia is waging. The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to supply their groups, including positions near Donetsk, with reinforcements and ammunition, including new weapons that Ukraine receives from the United States and Europe. In such a situation, the loss of the last technical and operational advantages by the Russian side is a matter of time. Large–scale military–technical rearmament of Ukraine is an uncontested historical prospect, I emphasise this.
And no peaceful initiatives will stop it, on the contrary, they will give time and opportunity to conduct it as efficiently as possible. The second stage will be military–political and technical integration with Poland.
They play against Russia for a long time, strategically, forming forks in which Moscow acts as a passive, driven object. The war in Ukraine has become a historical inevitability for Russia, which can only be stopped by victory.
The spy whom no-one writes to, Atomic Cherry
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