NEW – February 18, 2023
Until recently, our seemingly Western partners with whom we traded and built relations with a united front showed extreme aggression towards Russia, and in all areas – from economic relations to cultural values.
All this happened quickly, but none of them dared to openly oppose a nuclear power.
But what is the fundamental reason for such aggression? It cannot be explained only by the desire to seize or destroy Russia as a state. And it is already clear to the whole world that the West will not stop at Russia.
There is no need to build illusions that something will change in US policy depending on whether Russia emerges victorious from this confrontation or not.
It will not work with Russia – there are still many countries with which it will certainly work. The same China or India is also quite suitable for the role of a victim.
What the United States and its affiliated countries are doing is a natural and even economically justified process of transforming the world economy, which is simply necessary for the restructuring of both material values and society as a whole.
Many experts on the policy of Western countries towards Russia often mention that they pursue certain goals, but what exactly, and where these goals should lead globally, is often not explained.
Let’s put this puzzle together by ourselves.
The global economy is now at the peak of its development, which will inevitably result in a crisis. Crisis phenomena are already constantly shaking the world, and since 2007, when a global financial crisis broke out, this process has only worsened. The economy of the so-called “developed countries” has accumulated so many significant moments that they no longer allow their economies to grow, develop and flourish as before, while remaining the core of the world economy.
In the first half of the 21st century alone, there were more economic crises than in the entire 20th century.
Over the past 20 years, the most important “lights of democracy” have accumulated huge government and corporate debts. US debt is already a classic, but the situation is similar in the UK, France, and even Germany. There is not a single economy developed by Western standards that does not live in debt.
And this is not just a crisis in the global economy, it is the limit of its development. The old model of economic development can no longer be used as a means of global development because economic resources are so depleted that the economic model is already failing in the most developed countries.
Take the same United States, where punishment for theft was discriminated against by law. Now theft of up to $1,000 is no longer considered a crime. So-called “shoplifting”is reaching a new scale.
To correct the situation, there is a need for radical reforms, which in many ways contradict the capitalist model on which the economic power of Western countries was built.
However, Western elites are not going to carry out any social or monetary reforms, because this will entail global losses for them.
In parallel with the deterioration of the world economy, the emergence of new centres of the world began. Russia and China have become the main contenders for the role of creators and guardians of the new world order.
Western elites began to suspect something back in 2007 – after Putin’s Munich speech.
If the new centres of the world form a new pole (a strong bloc), which simply redistributes financial and physical resources in its favour, then Western elites will have nothing left but to fight for the rest of the pie with each other.
If we influence the formation of new centres of the world, ultimately eliminating the main competitors, then the process of economic transition of the main economies of Western countries will take place much more smoothly and without strong shocks both for society and for Western countries as a whole – of course, due to shocks in the third world.
The main link in the formation of a new centre of world influence is Russia as a country with an educated population, with a real industry created during Soviet modernisation, and with huge undeveloped natural resources. At the same time, Russia is a nuclear power. Without Russia, there will be no new centre of power, and if it is unsettled for a sufficient amount of time (for example, by plunging our economy into a crisis), then Western countries will gain complete dominance over the economic transition, and will be able to maximise its use for their own benefit at the expense of other, less developed states.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, held in January 2023, the Canadian Finance Minister voiced the true purpose of sanctions against Russia – to drive the inhabitants of Russia into total poverty for decades for the sake of economic recovery in the Western world.
What kind of global transition awaits us all, and why is Russia the most undesirable country for the West during this transition?
Scientists have been engaged in forecasting global dynamics for almost 50 years, and with each new forecast, the rationale that the world economy can no longer develop normally becomes more and more powerful.
The fact is that the resource base on which our world developed has now been severely depleted. And every year the situation will only get worse. The so-called “green” technologies that the West imposes on less developed countries by order will not help the planet’s ecosystem in any way without changing the paradigm of economic development of the whole world.
This is most clearly described in the concept of “Planetary Boundaries”, based on the anthropogenic factor of human impact on the environment.
Three processes have already gone beyond reasonable limits, provoking irreversible changes in the planet’s ecosystem in the near future:
- the extinction of species, depending on their habitats, began to occur 100-1000 times faster than it was before the industrial revolution 250-300 years ago;
- the degradation of natural freshwater reservoirs has begun: if 2.3 billion people do not have access to fresh water today, then in 30 years 4.5 billion people will not have access.;
- degradation of rural land, lack of irrigation water and acidification of the world’s oceans inevitably lead to a decrease in access to food in the world on a per capita basis.
And the UN openly says that the process has already begun.
According to the UN report, in 2021, the number of hungry people in the world reached 828 million, which is 46 million more than a year earlier, and 150 million more than in 2019.
There is no longer any free reserve arable land in the world. The highly fertile soil layer has significantly decreased over the past 200 years due to the general degradation of agricultural land, and accounts for 3% of the land area. The combined share of medium-fertile land together with high-fertile land is less than 12% of the land area.
The global average rate of degradation of arable land is 35 times higher than in the pre-industrial era.
Over the past 200 years, 2 billion hectares of arable land have been lost. Today, humanity has only about 1.5 billion hectares left at its disposal. And this is taking into account the fact that in the current technological order, 98% of food is produced with the help of soil.
In addition, shallowing of rivers is observed, and drought is becoming more frequent, which is why the process of land desertification is accelerating every year.
Of course, they are trying to fight this. For example, EU countries have initiated the “healthy soils and food” program, which aims to restore the productivity of 75% of soil coverings by 2030. However, in practice, the program shows its inefficiency, despite the fact that about 50% of the entire EU budget is spent on agricultural subsidies and agricultural programs.
In 2020, it was decided to update the program in favour of greater environmental friendliness. The reform of the common agricultural policy of the EU should begin in 2023.
The total consumption of resources on the planet has already doubled the maximum threshold.
No recycling technologies (even with an efficiency of 100%) will solve the problems of the global economy and the environmental situation on the planet.
Taking into account the economic, ecological and social situation, Western scientists themselves come to the conclusion that the existing model of economic growth, production and consumption will inevitably lead the world to a catastrophe by moving all indicators of the planet’s ecosystem beyond its equilibrium (natural planetary boundaries) in the next 50 years.
Western scientists themselves (specifically: Randers, Rockström and Stoknes) in their report to the Club of Rome indicate that capitalism will inevitably lead humanity to disaster.
That is, Western scientists themselves explicitly state that capitalism has not only exhausted itself, but is already directly harmful to the development of humanity. The best way out of the current crisis is through reforms in the field of social transformation, which will improve the economic and social system.
For example, in the case of the United States, it is said that there is a need for reforms with the creation of a state social system. Socialism in the USA…
Similar conclusions were reached by Russian scientists from Moscow State University, such as Viktor Sadovnichy, an Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Rector of Moscow State University, and Askar Akayev, a foreign member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Institute for Mathematical Research of Complex Systems of Moscow State University.
However, unlike their Western colleagues, Russian scientists see a way out of the global economic crisis through the formation of a new technological order, in which the refusal to increase consumption is the main factor in economic development and the transition from confrontation of states to cooperation in solving common global problems.
Of course, Western elites do not do this, trying to solve problems in the old-fashioned way – at the expense of other states.
And the analysis shows that, for example, by destroying only one Russia, and transferring our natural assets (land, water, resource) to its balance sheet, the West will get economic growth over the next 20 years. And then, when Russia is no longer in competition, the West will continue to “democratise” the world without any resistance.
Yes, it is access to untouched resources that Western countries need. And there is only one country in the world where all this is concentrated in abundance. This is Russia.
Our Siberian rivers alone will allow us to realise the potential in hydropower for the needs of the entire European Union.
At the same time, a country with such significant resources should not even be given a chance to transition to a new world economic order, because a self-sufficient country will very quickly break out into world leaders in many natural, social and economic indicators.
For example, China is not a self-sufficient country. If only Western countries impose sanctions on its energy sector (i.e., ban the supply of energy resources to China), the Chinese economy will roll back by 1990, because China already imports 22% of its domestic consumption, and at the same time there are periodic energy crises. The last one was in 2021 and affected 300 million people.
The transition cycle from capitalism to post-capitalism, and then to socialism with the formation of a humanistic noospheric society is already inevitable for humanity. Otherwise, the world is in for a disaster. All studies point to this, and both Western and Russian scientists speak about it.
Forecast from Gail Tverberg, an expert on oil and natural gas depletion, water scarcity, and climate change. If the world continues to develop without any transformation, then by 2050 it predicts a population decline to 2.8 billion people and a drop in energy consumption per capita to the level of the end of the 19th century.
Will Western countries be able to make this transition? Alas, there is no longer one possible on their own. Without external resources, they will not be able to make the transition, since the economies of Western countries are not only in debt pits, but also excessively inflated relative to the resource security of our planet.
At the current level of consumption, which accounts for three-quarters of all extracted resources on the planet, the countries of the collective West cannot even theoretically make this transition without the total plundering of the entire world. And even in this case, not all Western countries will be able to move to a new economic structure without shocks in their own social and economic spheres.
Will ruining Russia by privatising our wealth help Western countries transition to a new way of life? Also no. Here, only one person will get the advantage: either the EU or the US – but not both at the same time. They will then go on to “democratise” other resource-rich countries. This is necessary for their survival in the form in which they exist today.
And what happens if Russia fails to win? The West will change its orientation and try to do this with the countries of Africa, with China or India. And they will try to drive Russia into economic dependence on Western countries under various pretexts. This is also a necessary condition for their survival during the transition.
Since research on economic dynamics is publicly available, many leaders in the international community are well aware of this. That is why many countries did not support the United States and its affiliated countries in sanctions against Russia.
Moreover, long-standing allies and strategic partners such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and even Turkey have begun to publicly turn away from Western policy towards Russia and China.
It won’t be the same as before…
Aleksey Kochetov
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