NEW – July 29, 2022
How the West tried to deceive the fundamental laws of physics and the market, and what came of it.
Natural gas is, in fact, a substance that contains, in particular, the energy of combustion. At the same time, if the gas does not burn, then the energy does not go anywhere: the gas can be burned later, or redirected in another direction.
A small digression.
What is happening today in Ukraine, as well as around it, is, first and foremost, the special military operation and its goals, anti-Russian sanctions and the energy crisis associated with this. There are also food problems, but these are trifles due to the exceptional artificiality and artificial origin.
So, for Russia both the special military operation and counteractions on gas supplies to Europe in response to sanctions are exclusively forced measures, no matter how some try to talk about our innate aggressiveness and political malice. The evidence for this is simple and clear, and they are in the plane of a well-known truth: to break is not to build.
Yes, the development to the East was announced and programmed more than 20 years ago:
“…new eastern prospects are opening up for Russia, which we will certainly develop and actively participate in the process of turning this region into our ‘common home'” (Vladimir Putin, “Russia: new eastern perspectives” 09.11.2000).
Yes, the military reform began more than 10 years ago, but both the turn to the East and the revival of the army required enormous efforts and funds, because the legacy of the 90s was almost complete devastation, and besides, the country really stood on the verge of collapse on a dozen or two small states, in full accordance with the plans already made public by the West.
Of course, today’s Russian army is far from the one that won the 5-day war on 08.08.08. However, there is a very clear sign that for a fully-fledged modern war, we are sorely lacking, in particular, drones of various classes, the significance of which has long been clear to any specialist. That is, if Russia had long-standing plans for conducting a special military operation, implementation would begin when the army would be completely ready, including in terms of saturating all types of drones. In addition, there would not have been such unjustified casualties in the first weeks, but there would have been well-planned operations that would have left no chance for the enemy right away.
Also, despite the long-planned “turn to the East”, today’s significant reduction in supplies to Europe is potentially extremely painful for the Russian economy, which is saved only by a multiple increase in prices and the mistakes of the European Union itself, which also failed and did not have time to prepare and secure alternative supplies.
However, despite the revealed lack of timing, let’s return to the fundamental law of physics, which, in particular, in the field of gas supplies in practice should look something like this: in one place the gas valve closes, in another place it opens slightly. If there are problems where it is covered, then these are not our problems, the law of conservation of energy will not allow us to lie. And if to try to cheat here, too, a very holy market law will come to the rescue, which is absolutely impossible to deceive: if demand exceeds supply, then the great equaliser – price – comes into play.
Schemes that are about the same complexity as the gas for rubles scheme, which the West began to understand for some reason somewhere from the tenth or fifteenth time: we give you gas, you give us rubles.
Such is the balancing act, reduced by Prime Minister Mishustin to an extremely simple formula:
“…to reorient energy exports to new markets, we need to develop transport infrastructure. It is important for Russia to create an opportunity to quickly change the direction of raw material flows from the West to the East and back. In the future, the European-oriented gas transmission system can be combined with the Power of Siberia and the Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok pipeline – this will allow us to respond more flexibly to price conditions” (26.07.22., meeting on the energy sector).
To be fair, we’re not without sin either. Everything that happened before, starting with the Soviet gas pipeline “Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod”, which includes the notorious Ukrainian gas transit system, is already on our part the same attempt to deceive not only the law of conservation of energy, but also popular wisdom: never put all your eggs in one basket.
It is good that the wisdom and knowledge of the fundamental laws of physics are returning to the territory of Russia. Better late than never.
By the way, what about Nord Stream 2? Something too often they in the West began to remember about it. If I had my way, I would not have included it, it already feels good, having already paid it off several times in full compliance with the fundamental market laws, which can be deceived, but it is expensive.
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