The Policy for Ensuring Russia’s Future Security

“Don’t bother your head with things that are not relevant to the present. One must still be able to get into the future.” – V. Pelevin

On the eve of the New Year it is customary to sum up the results of the past and to wonder what the incoming one will be like.

“US News” published a ranking of the most powerful countries, in which Russia ranks second. A result that was unexpected for many, and sad for those who rejoiced in Obama’s “torn to shreds regional power” comment.

The criteria for this ranking were:

  • Participation in international alliances;
  • Who the leader is;
  • Economic, military, and political potential.

In 1st place – USA, in 2nd – Russia, in 3rd – China. Among the least influential countries in the world are the Baltic Republics and a number of Eastern European States. “Independent” Ukraine is surely falling down and is already in 39th place after Lebanon, Belarus, Egypt, and many others.

According to the Americans, such a high position of Russia is determined by a powerful and professional army, the authority of the leader of the country – Vladimir Putin – and a sufficiently effective foreign policy. Special attention should be paid to another “factor of force” noted by the Americans. Overseas analysts, albeit “through gritted teeth”, hanging the label “authoritarian” on Russia, are forced to note the stability and functionality of our state, which has governed the country for “most of its more than a thousand years”. Thus confirming that the most important of our ties is a strong state. This is fundamentally different from the liberal concept – the service state.

The main pillar of the power of the Russian state is its army. And it’s not for nothing that in 2019 the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation claimed 2nd place among the strongest armies of the world according to the “Global Firepower” ranking. The authors took into account 55 factors, including 25 countries on the list. First place was taken by the US Army, and third – China.

There are, of course, weaknesses, and vulnerabilities. In the first half of 2019 the leading American analytical structure “RAND Corporation” – working for the government, Pentagon, and US intelligence, analysing Russia’s weaknesses, with the aim of having a destructive influence on them – pointed out: “The greatest vulnerability of the Russian Federation in any competition with the United States is its economy, which is relatively small and heavily dependent on energy exports. Russia’s economic policy is bad and weak.” Let’s draw conclusions.

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In general, such a high ranking of Russia given by our competitors is very positive news.

Global crisis as a challenge

The West is in deep existential crisis today. The world is “American”, where the dollar – the main product produced by the US for export – “rebounded from the ceiling”. Growth ends – progress and meaning ends.

Most adults of the golden billion already believe that their children will be worse off than their parents: from 50% in Australia to 90% in France. Tomorrow is no longer a dream world for the Western citizen, but rather a world of uncertainty, a world of growing anxiety, conflict, and injustice. And why then need this “democracy as a self-value”, ask more countries and people around the globe.

There is a sharp weakening of the attraction of US policies and Western civilisation as a whole. I.e. – they have already nothing for the world in the sense of sincerity and “out of love”, and “for love through money” their funds ran out. The US simply has a lack of resources to dominate through buying loyalty and military power. Whereas the risks are growing…

Analysts admit: “Golden Billion” + China and India = on the verge of resource collapse. The struggle for dwindling resources is now the dominant force in world politics. Leadership is provided by dominance in the information field and technological superiority supported by direct military force.

So there’s a crisis. Alas, but often historically in such situations the solution to the global crisis was war. The most unsavoury methods are being put into motion. As the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation General Valery Gerasimov stressed, “Western allies are advancing the thesis of the so-called Russian military threat. Any step by Russia to ensure its military security, any planned and transparent exercise to build an army and navy, every exercise is clearly presented by West propagandists and fake media as a ‘threat to peace’.”

The fight for the preservation of peace is becoming the main task of the responsible forces of world politics.

National security threats

The modern world already lives in a state of hybrid warfare that unfolds for hegemony, resources, and maintaining control over finance, trade, and technology, on the one hand (the US-led West), and for multipolarity and its own sovereign future on the other (Russia, China, etc.).

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In this situation, nuclear deterrence is a supporting factor that humanises the international environment. Today this is recognised by our Western opponents, Russia is in a position to inflict irrevocable damage on them. On this basis, the likelihood of a direct “hot” conflict is unlikely. The nature of threats is also changing.

The most pressing threats to Russia today are information-ideological and cyber threats. Their purpose is to sow chaos and confusion in the heads of Russians, erode the trust of society in the government, destroy social infrastructure, and as a result (according to the model of the “cold” destruction of the USSR) weakening and disintegrating the state of Russia is the very main staple.

Russian-speaking platforms based in the Baltics and Ukraine, as well as a fifth column inside our country, are used for informational attacks. The factor of the de-consolidation of a part of Russian elites is used. The psychological and ideological resilience of society becomes key.

The very content of the concept of “war” changes literally before our eyes. According to RAND Corporation analysts, a new form of war – virtual social war – will be conceptualised by 2023 as a mechanism to undermine the sovereignty and destruction of states.

Virtual war will be of a social nature, for it will extend to the whole of the society of the enemy. Its purpose is to undermine social trust and, ultimately, the very stability of the functioning of the target state.

The methods of this war are highly sophisticated. They can include political sanctions and covert operations aimed at creating fifth columns in the target country, deactivating opinion leaders, using diverse cyber attacks on infrastructure, and using artificial intelligence technology widely.

This is how American analysts see the wars of the near future. This is a very disturbing forecast that is foolish to ignore.

The informational impact is the first and most important stage of hybrid warfare, followed by social action technologies.

Western hybrid warfare technologists understand that humans are a resource to achieve certain goals, including military-political ones. One has to be able to work with this resource. After the globalisation of the media, capital, and markets, the time is coming for the globalisation of the human mass.

As the Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation Sergey Shoigu stressed: “The West long ago worked out algorithms for overthrowing any undesirable for them legitimate government in any country. Of course, all of this is done under the slogan of promoting democracy.”

It is possible to reflect these threats, forming the sovereign agenda, having and realising the project of the future of the country.

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Churchill gave a recipe for how to succeed in this: “One should not only be able to use the situation, it is necessary to be able to create it. By changing your consciousness, you create your own universe.”

Leadership, I repeat, will be provided by ideological integrity and technological superiority while relying on military force.

Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu wrote 2,500 years ago: “The best war is to smash the enemy’s plans; next best – to break his alliances; and as a last resort – defeat his troops.”

To win at the level of ideas, to out-think rather than to overpower the enemy, is the principle by which the development of Russia’s military organisation is taking place.

Our domestic scientific and defence developments have always been characterised by a non-trivial approach, cutting corners, low cost, and the alternativeness and novelty of applied methods.

We should not and do not intend to blindly copy foreign samples, methods and developments, following in their steps…

If you want, going into the technological breakthrough that the president spoke of, you must act in advance in Suvorov-style and, attacking, break through where the enemy does not expect, to defeat not by number, but by skill! In the end, our defence budget is 15 times smaller than the US’, and we are simply doomed to our alternative path of security.

This is precisely how our government procurement policy is implemented, when our super-weapons actually nullified the trillion-dollar American cost of creating monsters with all their carrier groups and dozens of bases scattered around the world… They’re just not in a position to repel our attacks, and they understand that.

The general approach is: it is necessary to control the situation, to have scenario plans of action in extreme situations and to work on pre-emptive actions, for which, for example, the Russian Defence Ministry has already created a system of forecasting armed conflicts.

The system makes it possible to predict the place and time of the beginning of armed conflicts, as well as to develop a mechanism for responding to the situation.


Zvezda

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