The Political Crisis in Ukraine Has Begun! What’s Next?

The reason for the crisis is the IMF‘s refusal to resume lending to Ukraine until Zelensky breaks his personal relationship with Kolomoisky and applies coercive measures to the former owners of “Privatbank” in order to return the amounts due to them.

Zelensky’s hopes that he could sway the IMF with the adopted Law on the Abolition of the Land Moratorium did not work: the IMF was adamant.

This has become quite clear following recent talks with the IMF mission. According to its results, IMF representative for Europe Poul Thomsen gently said that “so far there is no decision on the 3-year EFF program”, and the Ukrainian authorities need to solve the problem of “Privatbank”. In translation from diplomatic this means: there won’t be lending as long as Zelensky doesn’t apply real measures to return the money taken by former shareholders of “Privatbank” and doesn’t prevent the penetration of Kolomoisky’s people into power and the economy.

Reference: According to the National Bank of Ukraine, Kolomoisky personally guaranteed the repayment of 7.7 billion hryvnia of previously taken financing for “Privatbank”. In addition, he and Bogolubov should return to the state $5.5 billion under the terms of the deal on the nationalisation of “Privatbank”.

Zelensky, as I have written repeatedly, has made the whole country hostage to his personal relationship with the Corruption Perception Index. But it can’t last that long. The abscess is rapidly growing.

Zelensky needs to make a decision as soon as possible, before his favourite, with his arrests of bankers, brings the situation to a final break in relations with the IMF, as Kolomoisky is seeking.

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The situation is bad: Zelensky has already lost control of the “Servants of the People” faction, because the people of Kolomoisky and Avakov have actually already left the coalition. The remaining part of the faction blatantly degrades and already represents some kind of unprincipled rabble. Just Yury Koriavchenkov is worth a lot in this sense!

In these circumstances, Zelensky no longer has any option but to opt for a tactical alliance with Poroshenko and “Golos” to neutralise the influence of the Corruption Perception Index and meet the IMF’s demands. More precisely, this process has already started!

Everything will be decided by the fight for control over the security forces and first of all over the State Bureau of Investigations. The fact that the EU and “Servants of the People” supported Zelensky, and Kolomoisky did not, on the issue of changing the Law on the State Bureau of Investigations, which will allow to replace Roman Truba who now clearly works for the Corruption Perception Index, suggests that Zelensky is preparing a break with Kolomoisky. And the first step in this direction should be the dismissal of Bogdan and then Avakov.

All of this will inevitably lead to the collapse of the “Servants of the People” faction and an early election. As a result, Zelensky will lose control of the Verkhovna Rada, and all real power will pass to the Prime Minister, who will strictly implement the IMF’s structural reform program. This will be a good scenario, but a lot of shocks related to the curbing of the reckless and dangerous oligarch and the situational joining him now “Opposition Bloc – For Life“, Tymoshenko, and all other pieces of the oligarchic system, which, as bedbugs, cannot at all be fully satiated, await the country along this path.

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Andrey Golovachev

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