Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard
The Ukrainian authorities brought the country to schizophrenia: most Ukrainians want peace, but if you publicly declare this, you immediately risk becoming a traitor and an “agent of the Kremlin”. But wanting war and being a radical means to be a patriot and someone with an active civil position…
In such conditions the whole infrastructure of war and the huge company of the people earning money on the back of conflict was formed in the State. It is clear that the end of war will become a personal problem for them. And this is indeed the Ukrainian “party of war“.
“From Russia — to NATO”
“People’s Front“ was and still is its main driving force – a party that won parliamentary elections in 2014, although even if it its approval rating has dropped, its structure is the same: one of favourites of the US and former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the powerful Minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov, the speaker of parliament Andriy Parubiy, the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council and “bloody pastor” Aleksandr Turchynov all represent warmongers.
Since 2014 they chose for themselves the role of the main “hawks” in Ukraine supporting war in Donbass — to the bitter end — and blaming Russia for all their country’s problems.
The agenda for Ukraine, according to these warmongers, is radical: accession to the EU and NATO, a visa regime with the Russian Federation, returning Crimea, and the payment of reparations to Ukraine for the material damage suffered because of aggression.
They have loud theses, but they don’t receive the support of the population. According to opinion polls, the approval rating of “People’s Front” is about 1.5%. At the same time, powerful resources, including the radicals they control and who are supervised by the Interior Minister Avakov, are concentrated in the hands of the warmongers.
For them, losing power is like death
Besides “People’s Front”, political “hawks” exist in the majority of the factions of the present Verkhovna Rada. For example, in the “Bloc of Petro Poroshenko” it is Ivan Vinnik. They are also present in Yulia Tymoshenko’s “Fatherland”. And “Samopomich“ headed by the mayor of Lvov Andrey Sadovoy is in general a typical “party of war” scoring points on radical and bellicose statements.
At the same time, the stakes for “hawks” are very high: the political scientist Andrey Zolotarev is sure that, for them, a loss of power is equivalent to the concept of “prison”: “this is in the best case scenario, and in the worst case – I won’t tell voice it. And, trying to save their skin, the ‘party of war’ opts for an aggravation”.
The periodic “actions” of radicals – seizures, attacks, storms, etc – come from here, he added.
One shouldn’t forget about the nationalist “Svoboda“ party that periodically offers reminders about its existence, for which anti-Russia rhetoric always acted as fuel for the inflation of its approval rating. So far their support is at the level of about 3.5%, and it means that “Svoboda” members will continue to stir Ukrainians via radical actions.
Do Ukrainians want war?
On Thursday, July 12th, the “Rating” sociological group published the data of a new opinion poll, according to which 21% of questioned Ukrainians support the continuation of military operations – up to the complete restoration of Ukrainian mandate over all Donbass. In other words, they are for “war” up to the bitter end.
According to the political scientist Ruslan Bortnik, bellicose Ukrainians make up about a third of society.
“First of all, this electorate is, of course, the electorate of the right-wing …. In the next political cycle the electorate won’t have such a consolidated representation as ‘People’s Front’ had, because anyway over the last 5 years it suffered a certain moral defeat, because the war didn’t bring a victory. Moreover, there is deep disappointment in the authorities, which promoted these theses. This electorate is also considerably disappointed. It is fragmented, but, certainly, it will have an essential impact and will put pressure on Ukrainian politics,” said the political expert.
He assumes that Turchynov, Avakov, Yatsenyuk, and Parubiy will remain in politics and will enter the new Rada in 2019, but already as a part of other political projects.
If there is a demand, then there will be also be a proposal – this law works perfectly well in Ukrainian politics. Ukrainians stimulated by desperate propaganda want war – up to the bitter end, and it means that there will be politicians who will call for it. And the end of this vicious circle is not in sight.
“The cost for Ukraine during the first half of 2018 of the ‘party of war’ being in power:
1) a $1 billion increase in national debt;
2) a +8% growth in the producer price index (real inflation, in fact);
3) a 12% decrease in the cumulative index of industrial production since the beginning of the year;
4) a -$3.4 billion trade deficit;
5) a 0.65 billion reduction in the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine;
6) an average +20.5% increase in prices for social goods and services;
7) a 4.5% growth of the living wage, and a 1.9% growth of the minimum pension.
But the most terrible – 150 killed among civilians and 114 soldiers.”
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