NEW – October 3, 2022
Evening, night and morning, which is more complicated, I was silent, thinking…
My head was full of questions, theories, answers and advice. But most importantly, I couldn’t understand why it [the disagreement within the corridors of power in Russia with the way the Ministry of Defence is handling the military operation in Ukraine – SZ] went public?
I do not believe that Kadyrov and Prigozhin do not have a channel to communicate with Putin past Gerasimov. I do not believe that Putin does not have “his own people” in the Ministry of Defense who do not create a double- or triple- channel for informing about what is happening. Yes, a banal analysis of open sources makes it clear that not everything is glamorous in our “Emerald City” of khaki…
That is, it is nonsense that “public appeals” to the people are an attempt to break through the information blockade around the President. Then what is the goal? The goal is obvious – to prepare public opinion for certain upcoming events. 3 versions come to mind…..
A “purely military plan” – the essence of which is simple, to pull the UAF into an attack on “its territory”, home, where, as they say, the walls help. And strike, strike and strike. Yes, this process must be constantly fuelled – so that the enemy goes forward on the rake regardless of losses, they need to be given a “victory”.
Kiev loves selfies at the expense of bloodshed, so let them do it! Napoleon was even given Moscow for the same reasons. But his army was taken away. Inflating the “betrayal” concerning the Ministry of Defence may also be part of this trap. I cannot assure you that this is exactly the case. I have no understanding of the losses of the parties, if I am right, then the UAF should have a multiple more.
If this version is correct, then a big counterattack using what remains of the army of the enemy is a matter of time. In favour of this version:
- Liman, and before that, Izyum and Balakleya did not receive significant reinforcements, although there were reserves, decent ones at that. They are still there.
- A whole layer of weapons is not used, although they are there and even moved closer.
- The Ukrainian infrastructure is not being destroyed, it’s as if we deliberately let the UAF “advance”.
An explanation of this through an argument:
There are morons in the General Staff, the fate of the weak-minded. Even a moron understands that the bigger the hammer, the harder it hits.
Version 1.1 (supplement):
Yes, we have lost Izyum, Liman, etc. So? Did Ukraine win? No. Have we lost the war? No. And if we had captured Kharkov, Kiev, Lvov and Odessa, would we have won? Also no. The Anglo-Saxons would not have gone anywhere. They would simply have thrown the Poles and Balts under our feet, then Germans, French and Spaniards. It would be their version of “Version 1”, only the stakes are higher. Not Balakleya, but Kharkov, not Izyum, but Kiev. Not Liman, but Lvov. Not Lisichansk, but Warsaw.
It’s possible to play this game together. Yankees and Brits can do it too. They have the experience of the two World Wars. They will not blink an eye so that Europe and Russia kill each other, and they would come and finish off the “winner”. Nothing new, and if so, then the current war is not about the seizure and retention of territories.
Therefore, absolutely to hell with whatever flag is over Liman, this or that city at a moment in time! It only matters “how many lives and equipment this flag cost” for the parties. Whoever lost the most lost, even if they raised their flag… in the next village.
Version 2 – “The Great Resource War”:
So, we have decided that it is not the territories in pure square hectares and individual settlements that are the value of this war. And we should defeat not Ukraine and Kiev, but Brussels and Washington. But if so, the military way along the “highway” Krasny Liman – Izyum – Kiev – Brussels – London – Washington. If this is primarily nonsense, then how are we going to WIN? And we are going to win, without any doubt.
And not against the UAF and Ukraine, but against all of NATO and the EU with the United States. How can this be done? Obviously, there is only one way. Through the collapse of the Western economy! There is no other way!
The enemy has to spend their resources a lot more than we do! They should run out of them sooner! Resources in a broad sense: gas, oil, weapons, people, etc. The French “Caesar” or German “Gepard” that are destroyed by Donbass are not only an irretrievably lost military unit of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but millions of kilowatts of energy that were required for its production. And which not just the UAF lost, but directly France, Germany or the Czech Republic.
An attempt to create a new piece of equipment in conditions of energy shortage and at new energy prices is for NATO countries is like having sex with a rattlesnake, and in a passive role too.
Yes, the process is not fast – it will take time, but it’s strategically correct. We have no other method than to reach directly for the throat of the enemy, through Ukraine, except through energy. Therefore, it is necessary to look at the same Liman not through hectares of territory, but through burned kilowatts.
I am more than sure that the UAF during the offensive, under the artillery and aviation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, crowded at Liman, really suffered losses many times more than Russia’. Translate them into kilowatts, translate these kilowatts into EU prices, and ask yourself the question:
“The UAF and NATO definitely ‘won’ near Krasny Liman?”
Personally, I’m not at all sure…
In such a war, territories are also evaluated in terms of resource and energy potential. Yes, it’s cynical, but that’s why Crimea, Kherson, Zaparozhye, Donbass are already in Russia – these are resource-profitable regions. Izyum, Liman, etc. were exchanged for the lives of Ukrainians and NATO kilowatts.
And I don’t need snot in the comments below this text about poor, peaceful people who were abandoned and betrayed by the “bad” Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. I have already learned this tactic of Ukrainian governmental psyops. War is cynical sh*t, not a macrame circle. But this is a barrel of honey, a fly in the ointment will be next…
Version 3 – “Socio-structural”:
I.e. the deliberate creation of “uncomfortable living conditions” for individuals or entire social groups that will force them to leave Russian society, or Russian state structures and social institutions. There is absolutely no doubt that this is an important factor for the full development of the country. This approach is more effective and widespread than the use of personalised enforcement tools.
Indeed, we need to defeat not Ukraine, and not even the EU, along with the USA. Victory over them will come by itself, if we do the main thing, we will be able to understand ourselves! Find weak and rotten links, defective areas. Replace them, fix them, throw them away.
There is neither good nor evil in this. No need to heap burning coals of shame on one’s head or trumpet hymns of praise, to go to extremes.
It just needs to be done to make the SYSTEM work! The most successful business structures periodically conduct stress tests on a variety of topics. You will be surprised, but almost always errors, mistakes and screw-ups pop up. Sometimes they are significant, sometimes not. Sometimes the person responsible for this flies out of the company like a cork from a bottle of champagne. Sometimes, they get a slap on the head, sometimes a bonus.
The “Special Military Operation” is also a stress test! Only on the scale of the largest state in the world by area. Held FOR THE FIRST TIME in 80 years! Do you think we should be able to do everything smoothly? No – that would be fantasy. Just counting on it is stupid. But it is also a crime to keep silent or stuff such a thing under the carpet, because the value of a stress test is precisely in identifying and correcting errors, anyone who prevents this is a criminal!
Strategically, the “cunning plan” to cleanse society works quite well:
- Outright traitors are either sat in jail or fled the country;
- Some businessmen rushed to the West to their money, others brought the money to Russia;
- Some “stars” went to the hospital, and to hell with the others;
- With the beginning of the announcement of the “Special Military Operation”, and then mobilisation, society regurgitated a huge number of cowards and scoundrels;
In general, this year everyone shows what they are really worth. Now, in my opinion, the matter should reach outright fools and dim-wits, and not only in the army.
8 months is a more than sufficient period of time to look at the “combat path” of each official, officer and general and analyse it personally for professional suitability.
And I don’t need to hear phrases like “And before this it was impossible?”
I have been engaged in personnel security for 12 years and I can state with full responsibility: “Only practical activity shows the real level of training!” No tests, service checks, exercises give a complete picture. Fools disguise themselves very well. Yes, unfortunately we have already learned that…
Borisov – crappily organised the state defence order and went for a hard downgrade. The former deputy in the rear of the Ministry of Defence Bulgakov turned out to be weak and incompetent. Similar things will continue to happen.
Moreover, objectively, the Ministry of Defence needs a “generational change”, one can appreciate the experience of generals aged 60+, but most of them stupidly do not know how to work with a computer or any modern gadgets. And do you expect them to digitalise the battlefield and network-centric warfare? They should have crayons, pencils and paper maps – here is the thing! That’s just not how wars are fought anymore.
And it’s time for a very significant layer of the Russian military leadership to retire. If you think that you are able to be useful – then have the position of “adviser”. And this is not a stone in the garden of the Ministry of Defence – it’s just that now it’s in focus. This applies to all departments of Russia, where people aged 60+ rule.
Kadyrov, Prigozhin, many senior officers and young generals understand this, but they can’t do anything. Any law enforcement agency is a “fighting brotherhood of elders” who hold onto a chair for a banal reason. They don’t know how to do anything, and nobody needs them in civilian life!
If to not take “resonant cases”, when the “best” arrive in their position not though hard work, then ALL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES work at a speed for which in a normal business structure you would be thrown out of the window in a week at most. The level of flexibility is close to zero!
Unless a person has experience in business, and Kadyrov, Prigozhin do. I am not at all surprised that such people are missing from the “decision-making system” in the Ministry of Defence and in other structures.
Therefore YES! I definitely agree that:
a) a radical rejuvenation of the command staff of law enforcement agencies is necessary;
b) the dilution of this “closed club of pensioners” with fresh blood from other departments.
We need real social elevators within the military system. In the civil sphere, this is somehow happening: the School of Governors, Leaders of Russia, etc., etc. There is no such thing in any siloviki department.
As a result, there is everywhere the height of old age, which is simply behind the times, but does not want to humble itself and admit it. The “Special Military Operation” showed that they simply cannot keep pace and have time to adapt to a rapidly changing environment.
And it’s not about Lapin, Kadyrov or Prigozhin. Everything is much more complicated. And yes, these stables need to be raked.
Can we win without it? Probably yes! And the fact that these questions began to be raised is correct.
THIS is much more important than the victory over Ukraine. We will solve problems and we will win everywhere! We will defeat anyone!
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