NEW – September 23, 2022
What is happening reminds me of the 19th century Crimean War, only it should end in Russia’s favour
The partial mobilisation announced by Vladimir Putin did not come as a surprise in principle. Everyone from social media users to professional experts has been talking about it in recent weeks. Initially, Russia fought not by numbers, but by skill, defeating a significantly outnumbered enemy due to the higher professionalism of its fighters and superiority in weapons. However, defence supplies from NATO countries, professional mercenaries and Ukrainian units trained according to NATO standards have changed the balance of power. The fact that Russia would respond to changes in the situation was well understood in the West.
The calculation was that the inevitable mobilisation will put the Russian economy on its side. The country will return to the Bolshevik era, or better yet, to the times of war communism, and there will be no trace of the free market. Trading in currencies and securities on the Moscow Exchange will be suspended indefinitely, which may well cause a large-scale banking crisis and panic among depositors, as well as interruptions in imports. Many Russian enterprises will lose their workers, and people will be forced to abandon their usual way of life. All this, according to the plan of Western strategists, was supposed to cause mass discontent, which at least would force the Kremlin to curtail the operation in Ukraine, surrendering the L/DPR and Crimea, and at most force Vladimir Putin to resign.
However, the West miscalculated. There will be no shock to the economy or society from the mobilisation. Trading on the Moscow Exchange will remain in place. And sharp fluctuations in ruble currency pairs and blue-chip rates are the bread of speculators. Everyone in Russia has long been used to them. 300,000 reservists will be called up — the work will be carried out on a planned basis, not just once. Partial mobilisation will affect 1% or slightly more of the total resource. So businesses won’t be without employees. Of course, immediately after the referendums, we are waiting for a new batch of sanctions. However, Russia was cut off from the international capital market at the very beginning of the Free Trade Zone, and Western sanctions even affected Russian commodity exports. Russia should not expect any serious harm from the new Western sanctions. There will be no shock effect, as in the spring of 2022. Let’s get over it like it was before. The optimism or pessimism of investors will be shown by the current secondary public offering “Positive Technologies”.
There is another important point. There are not so few people from the former Soviet republics, especially Central Asia, who will be happy to participate in military operations on the side of Russia on the territory of the former Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. Their reason is clear – to get Russian citizenship and earn money. Russian citizenship is a privilege, and one can earn it in many ways, including by spilling one’s blood. My opinion on this issue is that Russia should meet the Kazakhs, Uzbeks, Kyrgyz and other citizens of the former USSR. This should also strengthen the pro-Russian sentiment in their republics. It is no secret that there, especially in Kazakhstan, Ukrainian diasporas and direct agents of the SBU are very active.
How it will end, of course, only the Almighty knows for sure. However, I am optimistic, I don’t think we will have to turn Polish brood into nuclear dust. This scenario is openly discussed in the West. They judge by themselves. What is happening does not remind me of the final battle of Good and Evil in human history, but of one of the past clashes between Russia and the West, namely the Crimean War of the 19th century. Only it should end in contrast to the 19th century in favour of Russia. Our country will emerge from the conflict as a stronger, Eastward-oriented capitalist Power. By forcefully confirming the status of one of the geopolitical poles of the new emerging world.
The economy will immediately become larger due to the attached territories of the former Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, partially nullifying the eternal Russian demographic problems. Relations with the West will certainly be so-so. But the reserves of the Bank of Russia will be unfrozen, energy supplies to Europe will partially resume, as well as tourist trips of Russians to Europe. And the risk guys on Wall Street will, as they did ten or twenty years ago, speculate in stocks on the Moscow Stock Exchange and invest in Russian sovereign debt. We will also pay with the MIR card not only in Turkey, but also in France, Germany and Spain, and maybe even in Poland.
Copyright © 2022. All Rights Reserved.