Due to numerous requests for information about the heavily discussed possible future Russia-Belarus unification, Stalker Zone has translated 4 posts from the Bulba Prestolov Telegram channel for readers to scrutinise. Who exactly is behind this channel isn’t known, but if anything is to be taken away from the presented information, it is that the matter is not black and white. A chess game between the US and Russia is ongoing.
According to the news of integration, one can only repeat what has already been said:
“Russia focuses on the transition to unified legislation and integrated management systems. After this Belarus will live virtually according to the economic legislation of Russia. At the same time, there will be no more common subsidy systems. Accordingly, each subsidy will have to be strictly deserved by the clear implementation of Russian legislation. It turns out that Belarus will become the North Caucasus-II of the early naughties, but with a tight binding of funding with implementation.”
The problem is the same: political risk. The network of Belarusian nationalists is increasing influence and radicalising, the layer of union integrators has been sold to Belarusian intelligence agencies and is becoming thinner, the apparatchiks of the pro-Russian paradigm of the early naughties has lost influence or been cleansed, contact between the regime and Western countries is increasing, including military, analysts, diplomats, parliamentarians, apparatchiks. From the outside it looks like fully-fledged preparation for cooperation and turning to the West, building bridges. Only this will be followed by meetings at the highest protocol level.
A more or less observant expert will see the Ukrainian scenario in this. By all definitions, this corresponds to a system of borderline stability. Politically, the country is steadily going West, but economically dependent on Russia. We remember what hopes for the economic prudence of the feudal lord led to in 2013-2014.
Makei, in the case of receiving the post of Prime Minister and shock therapy named after Lukashenko, if desired, will, in my opinion, remove the latter from the throne without special problems. 21% of Makei’s approval rating is mainly concentrated in Minsk. And controlling the capital, even if “mental”, is the actual guarantee of victory in political perturbations. Makei as president is likely to be able to find support in the West, which cannot be said about Lukashenko.
Lukashenko is, in fact, a “drug addict” at the terminal stage, registered in a part of the common all-Russian (or, if anything, Russian) house. He used to drink only moderately, for which the owner of the house allocated him upkeep, but now he turned to heavy opiates (nationalism and the idea of a “bridge”) and he began to let “speculators” (emissaries of the West) first to his “wing of the house”, and then to the Russian part. In fact, the moment is inevitable when a “drug addict” will transfer in writing his part of the house to dealers (a parliamentary republic and the surrender of Belarus to the West) – after which they will have access from the Belarusian “wing” to the Russian part, will die from an overdose (a palace coup or street) or try to set fire to the whole house (playing the game on the Russian field)
Russia needs to replace Lukashenko, and already yesterday at that. And all these games in the long and transitional periods for Belarusian enterprises give the West time to deal with its electoral cycles and focus attention again on Belarus. Even now, in the face of domestic political crises, German and Austrian funds have increased activity in Belarus and are forcing de-Russification programs.
With moderate economic integration failing, Putin can, of course, make a power move and single-handedly surprise us with extraordinary decisions, like in the case of the $15 billion loan to the (back then already) cooked Yanukovych, $3 billion of which was given to “revolutionary” Ukraine, with the continuation of gas supplies and a “recommendation” to Russian banks to stay in Ukraine, which caused Russia multi-billion-dollar damage and helped “revolutionary” Ukraine survive the acute phase of the financial crisis. All of these decisions were taken contrary to the recommendations of Russian analysts and led to the expected and non-beneficial consequences from the point of view of Russia. There, however, Eurasian integrators still played, who were strongly framed by this advice. Such decisions will kill Russia’s geostrategic disposition and sink Putin’s approval rating to zero.
We have come close to re-examination, which will show whether the Administration has learned the Ukrainian lessons.
Putin’s administration has been openly working to destroy unity between Western leaders since 2014.
G7 + Russia or renewed G8 would be a place where Western leaders could unite to pressure Russia on some issues and thus find some points of contact between themselves.
To return to this format is to abandon 5 years of consistent policies for dubious benefits.
G20 is a much more relevant format for Russia, where the West is balanced by the Asian belt from Turkey to Japan.
In order to evaluate any format, it is not necessary to expect the emergence of any new relations – it is enough to calculate the average of the vectors of existing bilateral relations between the participating countries, where the lengths of the vectors are proportional to the geopolitical power of the respective states.
Bolton, Trump’s national security adviser, is going to Belarus. He’s the largest American official on a visit to the republic in the last 25 years, and a hawk with a strong anti-Russian position.
The start of the Belarus 2.0 project with complete de-Russification, the transition to Latin and a Uniate church, shock therapy, economic reformation, a pro-West parliamentary republic, and a controlling stake for Anglo-Saxons in return for guarantees for Lukashenko and his sons. Of course, guarantees can be violated, but this is not easier for Russia.
A strong move. The Kremlin’s geostrategy, playing 5-D chess with a cunning game plan for the long-term, subsidies for Belarus, Eurasian integration, Mikhail Babich’s withdrawal, endless last chances for Lukashenko, and the slow withdrawal of subsidies, nevertheless plays out.
It will be interesting to see how they will try to clean up “Lukashenko’s experts” and mainstream media journalists, who before presented Lukashenko as a fighter against American neo-imperialism and an ally of Russia. They’ll probably say it doesn’t mean anything.
Let’s see what the diplomats of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation and the clique of social-confederates from the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation, who lobbied the EAEU without political demands and a soft policy towards Lukashenko, will mumble.
Russia also has strong cards.
In Belarus, systematic preparation is under way for the admission of nationalists to Parliament:
1. Article 193.1 of the Criminal Code (activities on behalf of an unregistered organisation), which paralysed the activities of western NGOs in Belarus, has been repealed;
2. The group of activists who “closed” the battery factory near Brest announced their parliamentary ambitions – the intention to nominate their candidates for each district. Despite the apparent apolitical nature of the protests, the core of the group are Belarusian nationalists.
It is worth understanding that in fact the top leadership of the country closed the factory After a certain point, the company “AyPauer” started to have problems with the local authorities, they stopped passing environmental examinations, to the harassment of media close to the government. Everyone who is familiar with the Belarusian realities knows with whose permission such a turn can take place. I.e., the activity of this group of activists is fully structured and legalised by the regime.
This fully coincides with the handwriting of the Minsk Dialogue. Its director, Preigerman, allegedly set up a group of his supporters in the Belarus State University Faculty of International Relations called the “Liberal Club” (LC). Anyone familiar with the realities of Belarusian universities will laugh at this story. There is no academic atmosphere, academic competence, or academic freedom in Belarusian universities to create any student clubs. Especially political ones. Especially those who had contact with the systemic (on the hook of the Belarusian KGB) opposition (LC allegedly cooperated with the United Civic Party of Belarus until 2010).
However, a good CV, a history of hobbies, and all kinds of leadership and/or community activities are needed to enter Western (especially American) universities. In order to create pro-Western talking heads in Parliament a beautiful biography is also needed, where a selfless campaign against the “dirty” Chinese factory (millions of dollars of investments into the trash) will fit perfectly. As we can see, Belarus has established, worked out, and launched a mechanism for creating figures acceptable to the West, with the writing of fake achievements, in fact provided by local officials.
The resulting institute has already crushed the fields of NGOs, media, urbanism, and national activism. The next stage is the creation of political forces based on the centers of crystallisation and their diffusion into power. Over time there will be more and more nationalists in Parliament, but so far they are not needed. With the help of a couple of deputies alone could the authorities legalise the destruction of Russian-speaking toponymy, the introduction of Latin, and an anti-Russian cultural and historical policy. Imagine what can be done with a motivated group of ten-other deputies, with a control center in the West and the full loyalty of regime nomenclatures.
3. The West has multiplied its contact with a network of mainstream and regional websites (including the largest terrorist-supporting TUT.by resource). This applies to both EU bodies, as well as Britain and the United States. They prepare media for the future campaign, and activists – for the parliamentary future. The three-week courses now taking place in Seattle are particularly important.
If anyone thinks that Russia has in the granaries of the Motherland its own figures for Belarus, its powerful media, agents among officials, or loyal activists, they are wrong. There is absolutely zero. Emptiness.
Russia’s attempts to enter the Ukrainian political field only cause facepalms, and in Belarus the work is almost less, thanks to the absence of industrial regions and oligarchic groups. And the performers will be of similar competence.
In Belarus, the situation has long been similar or worse than the Ukrainian one, but now it is simply starting to legalise and manifest itself. Russia either needs to go in there now and do a full clean-up, or shut down everything, introduce a border, and look from the towers at the pesthouse.
The worst of all will be precisely half-measures and the slow withdrawal of subsidies, which will make the transition of power to pro-Western forces relatively comfortable and will confirm the civilisational viability (at Russia’s expense) of de-Russification, writing in Latin, and professing the Uniatism of Belarus.
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