By Ollie Richardson
1. There is categorically no evidence that Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons in Khan Shaykhun. In fact, the UK/US/France led UNSC draft resolution does not attribute blame to the Syrian government. The OPCW investigation now has no value whatsoever as Uncle Sam already played judge, juror, and executioner.
2. There is no explanation as to how a Sarin bomb can survive an explosion, since it would inhibit the reaction of the gas. The White Helmets who arrived on the scene should have, if it really was Sarin, died on the spot, and the overall death toll would be in the thousands. Also of note is that the various photos of the alleged scene of the crime show open streets, thus limiting the effect of any gas. Please note that the individual reporting in the video below is Hadi Abdallah – a Al Qaeda collaborator.
3. Trump launched 59 Tomahawk missiles in total, and only 23 of which reached their target. Some suffered technical failure in the tube, others landed in the surrounding strike area. The total bill for the US tax payer for the attack is over $60 million, assuming one missile costs around $1 million. Raytheon/Lockheed etc stocks had gains after the strike, offsetting the previous fall in price.
4. The site that the Tomahawk missiles hit is located in the Homs province of Syria. It hit the Shayrat airbase, which Russia used recently to send Tel Aviv a message via the Syrian Airforce when the Israeli Air Force tested Russia’s red lines near Palmyra. Coincidence? Also, if it’s claimed that this airfield is storing Sarin gas, then where are the big toxic clouds post-Tomahawk strike?
5. Russia gave the Syrian Army prior warning so that the most valuable assets could be moved away. The S-400 system was not used because: a) the Tomahawk strikes give Russia enough pretext to make some more severe shifts of equipment and personnel, and b) Russia knew that the strikes would cause very little material damage.
6. It can be affirmed with concrete logical reasoning that the Tomahawk strikes literally only benefit – concerning players inside Syria’s borders – Al-Qaeda and ISIS. This is similar to Obama’s “accidental” strikes on the Syrian Army in Deir Ezzor, the result of which allowed ISIS to push forward and to cut Russia off from any path to Raqqa. In addition, the Tomahawk strikes were planned long before the “Sarin” hoax, thus it is evident that it was a strategical chess move.
7. Russia suspended the air safety agreement with the US. This means that, legally speaking, the US must coordinate with Russia ALL aerial manoeuvres in Syrian airspace. In other words, Russia let the US know that they have the US airforce’s coordinates should it be necessary (low risk, high reward) to enter them into the S-400’s radar.
8. The Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netenyahu was very quick to show his support for Trump’s decision to hit Syria. In fact, in 2002 the former aggressively lobbied for the US to hit Iraq, Libya, Syria etc also because they have “chemical weapons”. As things currently stand, Israel gains nothing from the Syrian war, in fact, Hezbollah (and Iran) have only strengthened. Drastic measures happen because drastic changes are needed – i.e. things didn’t quite go the way Netanyahu had hoped, especially concerning the Golan heights.
In both word and action, @POTUS sent a strong and clear message today that the use and spread of chemical weapons will not be tolerated.
— PM of Israel (@IsraeliPM) April 7, 2017
9. The US, EU, NATO etc have absolutely no long term strategy concerning the Middle East, and are simply buying time against the background of Russia’s awakening as a major geopolitical player. In addition, they have absolutely no intention to hit Al-Qaeda – a group that is the dominant force in Idlib. The first stage is to take Raqqa (under the guise of protecting the Kurds), and to leave a military contingent in Mosul. This will cause groundhog day vis a vis Iraq 2003-2011. The second stage is to ensure that ISIS is kept alive, even as an insurgency, by herding them to Deir Ezzor and penning them in, using them as a buffer zone against Russia.
10. The war in Syria will continue for many more years yet. Russia is playing the long-game, and the changes to the leadership and the course of Europe will see that Russia gains more allies, especially at the UNSC. The US, however, is becoming more and more isolated; the once complex Game of Thrones in Syria is starting to become more clearer: Israel, via the US military, does everything to ensure that the mercenaries (Al-Qaeda and ISIS) hurt Iran as much as possible. This doesn’t mean that Netanyahu calls the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham al-Jolani and gives him commands, but that occasional airstrikes to Hezbollah facilities near Damascus and Syrian Army positions near the Golan heights offer at least some respite – even PR in the media – for the terrorist groups.
Russia will continue to prepare for the worst, but hope for the best.
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