Tymoshenko Prepares for an Early Presidential Election

Yuliya Vladimirovna Tymoshenko accused Zelensky of conspiring against the Ukrainian people (in connection with the intention to launch a mechanism for selling agricultural land before the end of this year) and called for the imprisonment of all those involved in the scam with the main national property.

With the main remaining national property. More recently, such was the GTS (gas transport system) of Ukraine (which, by the way, was also forbidden to privatise, sell, corporate, and at least somehow be excluded from state ownership, at least partially, under a separate law back in 2005 under the approving hooting of tens of millions of citizens concerned about the preservation of the national property).

Now the GTS is not relevant any more because soon, because of the lack of gas in it, it will turn into the biggest deposits of scrap metal in the world. Accordingly, Tymoshenko, who had previously fought selflessly for the GTS, started a battle for the land. If she can make a fortune on the land that is at least half as small as she did on the gas, it will already be a resounding success. But Tymoshenko appears to be lay claim to more.

At the moment, the main battle around the land law is between the conventional “Soros group”, which demands together with the IMF to allow foreigners to buy Ukrainian land from the first day, and the Kolomoisky group, which believes that first the Ukrainian land should be bought by Kolomoisky and his associates, and then sold to those wishing, but at a higher price. As you can see, the fundamental question is not whether there will be a sale of land, but by which rules it will be sold off.

Some of the large agricultural holding companies plan to fit into any scheme. Whether it be Soros, whether it be Kolomoisky, they are going to defend their own, and also to buy someone else’s. Perhaps they are wrong, but the autopsy will show. Some of the large- and the vast majority of medium-sized agricultural holding companies operating in Ukraine are unwilling to buy the land they own even de facto (on long-term leases). In addition, knowing Soros and Kolomoisky, they reasonably fear that they will be forced to pay not only owners and the state, but also some of these bandits (most likely both) for what they already use.

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The interests of these latifundists were previously defended by almost all Ukrainian parties, which frightened the population with the horrors of privatisation of the land (which will be exported by aircraft to Greenland and Antarctica to grow corn, rapes, and sunflower there). But things changed in 2019.

As mentioned above, the main fight of various political forces is not for or against the privatisation of land, but for the terms of its sale.

Certainly, regardless of whether the land remains in theoretical state property, or whether it will be sold by the thirsty “national mediator” Kolomoisky or “international mediator” Soros, the population of Ukraine will lose. It will lose anyway (even if the moratorium on the sale of agricultural land, more than expectations, will be extended for another 100 years). The fate of the population of Ukraine is to lose. It created such a state system together with the national oligarchy and “European integrators”/grant-eaters. This system can live only at the expense of the Ukrainian population and only working against its vital interests. For these interests do not (in any place) coincide with the interests of oligarchs and grant-eaters.

But in the 25 years since the moratorium was introduced, the vast majority of Ukrainian citizens have been intimidated by the Ukrainian press to an unconditional reflex. They fear the sale of land that did not belong to them, does not belong to them, and will never belong to them more than “Putin’s aggression”. That’s what Tymoshenko is trying to play on.

Tymoshenko’s youth is long gone. If she fails to secure the presidency in the next couple of years, then she will also lose the next presidential election (if it takes place in Ukraine). And goodbye, politics, the offences will not be avenged, the offenders will not be punished, and the sweet feeling of power will no longer, like a drug, heat the blood of the former “gas princess”. Tymoshenko is one of those people who will die while clinging on to power, and she certainly wants to return the irretrievably gone days of her youth, when she was almost the most promising Ukrainian politician, when the word “impossible” did not exist for her.

Tymoshenko sees a landslide fall in Zelensky’s approval rating, which has sank by almost a third in two months. She knows that there is a difficult winter ahead (she like no-one else can tell you what the absence of a contract for gas transit means). She takes into account the fact that Zelensky failed to achieve even the level of international support that Poroshenko had in his first two years in office. She is aware that the president’s entourage and various financial-political groups are already fighting not only for control over Zelensky, but also for what will happen after Zelensky. Moreover, already now many behave as if Zelensky is not present. Ukraine has already talked about possible early parliamentary and presidential elections. And the conditions for them may emerge next year.

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What does a politician need for a successful electoral campaign?

Firstly, the “criminal regime” against which it fights in the interests of the people. This will come in the form of Zelensky with his “servants”, like how it came in the form of Poroshenko for Zelensky.

Secondly, serious financial and information support. It should be provided by agricultural holdings that do not want land reform.

Thirdly, a specific problem that brings the population – which “does not want” the “criminal regime” to solve it, since it “can be solved” only by “our candidate” – to a state of hyper-agitation. For Zelensky [during his electoral campaign – ed], peace in Donbass was such a problem. Tymoshenko expects this problem for her to be the land.

Intimidated to hiccups, the population does not see a leader who can lead the fight for the land. Tymoshenko lays a claim for the seat of this leader. According to polls, it’s not 73% of those who came to the elections who are ready to vote for the only “saviour of Ukraine” opposed to the sale of the land, but 80% of the total population.

The only catch is whether or not the girl of gentry will be given the opportunity to turn around in full force and lead the process of resisting the “conspiracy against the Ukrainian people”. And the matter is not only in Kolomoisky, Soros, and cooperating Ukrainian oligarchs, each of whom has already roughly calculated their share in this scam. And not even in the IMF, which is backed by interested transnational agricultural holding companies. Tymoshenko’s main problem is her reputation.

In order to ensure her merger in a single impulse with the suffering people, it is necessary that Ukrainian agricultural holding companies (opposed to lifting the moratorium) pour into it from a few tens to a couple hundred million dollars only in the preliminary stage. When the fight is seriously in swing, taking into account the forces and interests involved, the price of the presidency can rise to half a billion just net (direct expenses), and together with the inevitable “evaporation/shrinkage” it can reach a billion dollars.

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That’s a lot of money. Their contributors must be confident that their problem will be solved. But everyone knows that by breaking into the main post in the country, Tymoshenko can instantly (and not just once) change her position. Old allies will no longer be needed (a service provided is no longer a service), new ones will be needed. Obligations can be set to zero at any time.

Money will be invested in Tymoshenko only if she proves that she is an unopposed candidate from among those who oppose lifting the moratorium. For this purpose she needs raise her approval rating without serious support at least to the mark of 20-25%. Taking into account the inevitable further sedation of Zelensky’s rating and its stagnation in the area of 14-15% (without a chance to reach 20%) of Poroshenko’s rating, such a result by the spring will give a significant reason to claim victory in an early election (unless another Zelensky appears – “young”, “smart”, “honest”, “successful”, “rich”). And an attempt will be made to seek and create this. Political technologists always try to repeat past accidental success, like how Generals always prepare for a past war.

If Tymoshenko is lucky and everything will turn out well, there will be a mere trifle: it will be necessary to hire up to 100,000 people (15,000-20,000 for the capital, the rest for large regional centers and blocking railways and roads), who will mimic the “peasant uprising” against the sale of land. In addition, it will be necessary to reach an agreement with Avakov not to disperse it, but to protect the protests, as well as to pay off local police chiefs and leaders of various kinds of militants (so that they do not show unnecessary independent activity). In such a scenario, an early election with Tymoshenko as the favourite becomes possible. But for this purpose it is also necessary that Kolomoisky, Soros, Pinchuk, Akhmetov, and others drop their hands and observe from distance how the successful escape is prepared for them.

Rostislav Ishchenko

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