NEW – July 7, 2022
The financial and economic system of the West is going “haywire”
Since the United States and its allies are waging not just a “hybrid war” against Russia, but a “war of attrition”, the dynamics of key financial and economic indicators are no less important than the dynamics of military operations along the line of the special military operation for the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine. Moreover, the fate of this war is decided not so much on the territory of Donbass and Novorossiya, but on the territory of the stock, financial and commodity markets of the collective West. It sounds paradoxical, but it really is.
In actual military terms, everything became clear by the beginning of March. Following the results of the first week of combat operations, when the army of Ukraine, which for eight years had been preparing to “beat the Moskals” in accordance with the military standards of NATO and the ideological standards of the Third Reich, was in a “frozen” state, losing, while maintaining a formal numerical superiority, not just the initiative, but even the possibility of manoeuvre. Since then, the fighting has mostly focused on destroying the resources of the Kiev regime. And since these resources have already become almost zero – on the destruction of those resources that the United States and its allies provide to the Kiev regime.
Perhaps one can argue about how justified such a strategy is from the point of view of the art of “traditional” war, but from the point of view of the art of “hybrid” war, the only claim that can be made here is a shift in the balance of resources and reserves, especially critical ones, in favour of the enemy. Therefore, the events taking place in the world (global) markets mentioned above are of crucial and decisive importance not only for the outcome of the special military operation, but also for the outcome of the conflict between the collective West and Russia, between the “alliance of democracies” and humanity as a whole.
If we take the situation in retrospect, which is slightly longer than from February 24, 2022, it is not difficult to see that last summer prices began to rise rapidly in the market of commodities or colloquially “commods” – standard and traditional exchange-traded goods, which invariably form the foundation of the global economy. Such as energy carriers, metals, a number of food products, fertilisers, etc. This growth was primarily due to the fact that since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, their real production has not increased or even decreased, and the money supply has increased significantly. And when demand began to recover, prices, according to all the laws of the market economy, went up.
In response, net importers of raw materials from October 2021 began to “chop commods” in every possible way and, probably, for some time they could succeed in this occupation. But then the special military operation began, and with it — the second wave of growth in commodity prices, especially in the part that correlates with Russian exports. Just recently, I had a chance to write that the energy “window” for the United States and its allies in the “alliance of democracies” is closing, and in three or four months their resources not only for supporting Ukraine, but also for continuing the conflict with Russia in any other form will be critically exhausted.
Now this forecast is beginning to be confirmed by a variety of sources, primarily Western ones. And not newspaper publications or public statements of politicians, businessmen and scientists of various levels, although they should also be taken into account (for example, Biden’s attempts to bring down gasoline prices by any means), but figures of key economic indicators. Now the world stock markets are in the “red zone”, the GDP indicator of the United States and Europe is declining for the second quarter in a row, price growth has reached record values for the last 30, and in some countries of the collective West — for 50 years.
The problem here is that, despite the statements of representatives of the Western financial authorities, in reality they do not stop issuing their currencies, the money supply continues to grow, and the real supply in the vast majority of commodity markets does not increase. First of all, this is due to the growing lack of confidence in these Western currencies as fully-fledged payment and reservation tools. As a result of such positive feedback, the entire financial and economic system of the West is “going haywire”. But against this background, attempts to contain the growth of commodity prices, especially in relation to Russian exports, look less effective. No, of course, there is no increase in prices on the “commodity” market today, but its approach can be predicted with a sufficient degree of confidence by the end of July-beginning of August (or even earlier), although usually in this season commodity prices, on the contrary, decrease. And this, since the summer of 2021, the third wave in a row, is able to wash out the remnants of free resources in the United States and especially in Europe. The next, fourth wave, which should be expected in late October or early November, will most likely be impossible for our Western opponents to contain and somehow stop its consequences.
Of course, Russia also suffers losses, this is inevitable, but the overall balance of forces and means during the current “war of attrition” has changed significantly not in favour of the collective West, and this trend not only persists, but even increases. And, consequently, the strategy chosen by our country in this conflict can be called generally correct.
P.S. The price of gas supplies on the main spot market of the European Union has reached $1,860 per 1,000 cubic meters, and the “first reserve” coal among traditional energy carriers is approaching $400 per ton.
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