NEW – September 21, 2022
A few remarks about mobilisation.
1. The decision on limited mobilisation is a recognition that purely voluntary recruitment methods will not achieve the desired size of the Armed Forces grouping in Ukraine, as well as the necessary “operational depth”.
2. Embedding large masses of mobilised guys into the current composition of the Armed Forces grouping in Ukraine will require time to prepare and coordinate new personnel, so that there will be no rapid one-time increase in the grouping, the process will happen progressively during the autumn and winter. It can be expected that in the second half of winter-early spring of 2023, the grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will outnumber the enemy, which will facilitate further offensive operations.
3. Having situational superiority in manpower due to the mobilisation already carried out, the enemy will try to exploit this during several offensive operations aimed at disrupting referendums, as well as to improve their positions before switching to strategic defense.
4. The war in Ukraine obviously will not stop, we are waiting for the winter campaign of 2022/2023 and the spring-summer campaign of 2023 itself. The risk of a nuclear confrontation between the United States and Russia will certainly increase. However, even before the start of the war in Ukraine, I wrote more than once that after the destruction of the current international rules, new ones will begin to be developed only after the parties reach the last line, when they will have a simple choice – compromise and new rules or nuclear war. So I have no doubt that there will definitely be a remake of the Caribbean Crisis. But in what form and with what ending, this is an interesting question…
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