Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard
In the new 2018 one more country of the post-Soviet space — Moldova — is in danger of turning into an experimental platform of the West for the cultivation of anti-Russian moods. And to achieve their objectives, “partners” from the US and EU gather according to an already worked-out scheme — through a coup d’etat.
The corresponding forecast was given by the Swedish expert in international issues Ulf Bjerén in an article for the local Sydöstran publication.
By the way, he also claims that the Ukrainian crisis began not with Crimea, and that the media and politicians simply intentionally “mislead us”.
Bjerén quite seriously estimated the extent of the threat of a repetition of the Ukrainian scenario in the neighbouring Moldova.
Chișinău, he believes, tries to go on its own way and to get rid of the “dictatorship of globalists” who keep the country in poverty. But “this contradicts the military strategy of NATO – encircling Russia”.
“Therefore, it’s quite likely that the US and EU will provoke a coup d’etat in the country using Kiev-2014 as a template, which will be followed by a Romanian invasion,” stressed Bjerén.
Concerning how events will begin to develop after this, the Swedish analyst is more reserved. In addition, he is not entirely sure why the West needs to change something in a country where pro-West forces have long governed, and the formal President Igor Dodon decides practically nothing.
For clarification “SP” addressed to the specialist in Moldova and expert of the International Institute of Humanitarian and Political Studies Vladimir Bruter:
“At the moment a lot of things depend on the results of the parliamentary elections that will take place in the autumn. If the elections are more or less transparent, and it really will be free will, then, proceeding from today’s ratings, the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (the party’s leader is Igor Dodon) obviously will win. And most likely they will be able to create a new government.
It is obvious that such an option does not suit the West. First of all, it fundamentally does not suit the United States. Because in this case they receive an uncontrolled State enclave that is on the other side of Ukraine. It’s as if, with all conventionality, Ukraine will now be surrounded.”
“SP”: To what extent, in that case, is a repetition of the Ukrainian scenario in Chișinău possible?
“The idea of a coup d’etat all the same seems to me to be a little radical. What does a coup d’etat mean in this case? Will the Party of Socialists not be allowed to win in elections? Theoretically, I can assume this. Four years ago ‘Our Party’ of Renato Usatîi was not allowed to win in elections, and it led to a significant change in the balance of forces following the results of elections.
For the West this is an ordinary occurrence, and, certainly, they can opt for this once again. Although this also does not look like an especially proposing direction for them — because after all, it is necessary to answer difficult questions. But, nevertheless, it is probable. Most likely, they will try all possible options to not allow the socialists to win.
Will a Romanian invasion happen after this?
This is an even more radical option, a cruel violation of all norms of international policy and of the UN.
It is difficult to imagine that Romania, on its own initiative, will be able to annex or, in some other way, influence the internal life of Moldova. And how to create a situation whereby the Moldavian authorities will ask Romania to intervene is already a different option.
However, it should be noted that European countries treat such an option quite coldly.”
“SP”: Why? In Ukraine they did not stand on ceremony.
“They understand that any annexation of Moldova by Romania or by the EU in general completely legitimates the policy of Russia. If the West somehow is able to stage a coup d’etat in Chișinău, to annex the republic, to not allow the Party of Socialists to win in elections, it will mean that Russia will be even more convinced than before in its belief that it is not allowed to use political methods. And this will lead to a fairly significant reaction.
The West, of course, would not like this. Because after this, any negotiations or consultations with Russia will become even more difficult and with an even smaller level of trust.
Therefore it seems to me that all this year the Moldavian situation will continue to remain a ‘game’ — all parties, understanding what the elections can lead to, will try to create for themselves the most favorable conditions for a result. And only if the result is obvious already for some time before elections is it possible to assume that pro-West forces will try to change first and foremost the existing order, which currently does not suit them.
And in any other case, they will try to put pressure on Dodon by using such methods that they use today — I’m talking, for example, about the decision of the Constitutional court to temporarily discharge the President from performing his duties.”
“SP”: What role was played, by the way, in this by the chairman of the Democratic party Vladimir Plahotniuc? How strong are his levers of influence over the government and parliament of the country?
“He is the government, parliament, and all the power in Moldova in one person. Without him the government, parliament, and anyone in general does nothing. The only thing that isn’t good for him is his political rating, which does not allow him to ensure that he somehow will win in the elections, should they be — I repeat — honest and transparent.”
“SP”: I.e., there is a chance that the election results can be falsified?
“Of course there is. They were also falsified during the presidential elections. But imagine that about one and a half million people voted at the time, 150,000 of which voted from abroad. And all this 150,000 is for Maia Sandu (the leader of the right-wing party ‘Action and Solidarity’, who has dual citizenship of Moldova and Romania, and in the 2016 elections collected more than 38% of votes).
This is serious electoral fraud. And I think that they bear this mind. But the question here is not only in this. The question here is that all frauds have limits.
And the fact is that fraud doesn’t help Plahotniuc. For this purpose he also opted for a mixed electoral system — to ensure his presence in a new parliament through single-member districts.
It is necessary to add that the West does not like Plahotniuc. He, for them, is a very toxic partner. The West would not like Plahotniuc to head Moldova — about which, as a matter of fact, he constantly reports.
Plahotniuc had intentions, or, in any case, to present the theme of him heading the government in December. But as we see, he made changes in the government, but he himself did not dare to lead it. Also this is not the first time. Such a partner does not suit the West. They are ready to consider that he is their partner in need, but are not ready to lend him a hand.
There are a lot of challenging moments. Because in this ‘game’, as I already said, everyone pursues their own aims. And these aims do not coincide with each other. It is obvious that if everything was so simple, the result would already be visible to all.
But the matter is the purposes of the West, Romania, Plahotniuc, and Russia, as one of participants of this game, diverge. And nobody can win now. For this reason everyone shows a kind of restraint. This restraint will continue either up to the elections or until the election results are obvious. At least, from the discrete point of view.”
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