NEW – August 19, 2022
On the air of a Canadian program for Russian emigrants, the question was asked: what will be the GDP of the main countries of the world after the crisis?
“This means that in China today the GDP is $16,000,000,000,000, domestic subsidies are 25% of GDP. Therefore, the decline will be approximately twofold, so 25×2 – a total of 50%. That is, China’s GDP will be 8 trillion. Approximately the same as they had, relatively speaking, in the mid-90s. This is a heavy blow for China, but not fatal.
The United States of America has an official GDP of 21-22 trillion, in reality it is about 15 trillion. The same 25% of domestic subsidies. So it’s a twofold drop. The GDP of the United States of America will be 7-7.5 trillion at the end.
For the United States of America, this is a very strong blow, because it means that a significant part of the middle class population will become poor.
The situation is similar in Western Europe. They have a GDP of about 15, the decline will be 7-7.5 if the collapse of the European Union does not occur. If it happens, it will be less, due to the appearance of borders.
In Russia, the official GDP is 1.7 trillion, but taking into account purchasing power parity – 3.5 trillion. At the same time, unlike the United States of America, Western Europe and China, where monetisation is above the norm, we can clearly see this in financial bubbles, in Russia monetisation is below the norm, it is approximately 40% of GDP, that is, 2.5 times below the norm.
If Russia starts the processes of domestic investment, which have been banned for the last 20 years at the direction of the IMF, then in this case, GDP from 3.5 will increase by 2.5 times. 3.5×2 will be 7, and even 2.5. Well, let’s consider that another half. That is, somewhere it will be 8-8.5.
As a result of this crisis, with the right policy, in 5-8 years Russia will become one of the largest economies in the world. This is the line we must follow. By the way, it is possible that India’s GDP will be even higher. This is how I see this picture.”
Economics and politics (Mikhail Khazin)
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