Why the Americans Are Afraid of the Ukrainian Elections

On March 7th the US Embassy in Kiev issued a warning to American citizens to be extremely vigilant whilst traveling around Ukraine during the presidential election on March 31st. The Ukrainian expert Rostislav Ishchenko writes that in reality such a message doesn’t just apply to election day. It also applies to everyday life in the post-Maidan Ukraine created by the “civilised” West…

The US Embassy warned its citizens that on the day of the Ukrainian presidential election (the first round has to take place on March 31st) it is better for them to be outside this European country.

If by unfortunate an accident they find themselves on the territory governed by the Kiev regime, then it is expedient for them to stay at home on election day, but they are impatient to go outside, then it is worth informing relatives in advance and acquaintances about the planned route, constantly keep an eye on the messages of the US Embassy, and also to submit to all the demands of local law enforcement. I think that by the term “law enforcement” the US Embassy, which is familiar with the Ukrainian reality, means any person in camouflage, in another uniform, or in general without a uniform, but who make certain demands. And this would be correct.

The American government, represented by its Embassy, is frankly afraid of the Ukrainian monster that is spawned. It is afraid not of a gang of radicals, not Poroshenko – who lost contact with reality – and his myrmidons, not the skin-crawling team of Tymoshenko-Kolomoisky-Avakov-Zelensky (who are preparing to take power and in no time prove to the Ukrainian population the firmness of the rule whereby every subsequent Ukrainian leader is so much worse than the previous one that the hated predecessor soon starts being remembered with affection and tenderness), but namely Ukraine in whole, in a touching unification of, and fight between, the contrasts that form it.

The embassy doesn’t specify a social or political group that should be afraid. It doesn’t separate the authorities from the opposition, and radicals from law enforcement. It simply says to Americans that here it is dangerous, and there is no need to come close, and if indeed you come close, then it is better to touch nothing and urgently call senior and experienced comrades so that they help to get out of the situation without suffering essential damage. In general, ambassadorial recommendations to American citizens remind me of instructions that the inveterate sapper gives to rookies before exiting to a minefield.

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It is characteristic that the embassy behaved in a similar way three months ago, when at St. Sophia Cathedral the so-called unifying Sobor, when two schismatic churches tried to merge into a third one, and the messengers of the Constantinople Patriarchate imitated the canonicity of the spectacle in order to then give Poroshenko what he so desired – Tomos of Autocephaly of no one knows what from no one knows who (the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate didn’t ask the Russian Orthodox Church for Autocephaly, and schismatics anyway weren’t in any church structure).

So, already back then (on December 15th 2018) the US Embassy also advised its citizens to steer clear of the “high-spiritual” gathering, although it would seem that it is bishops of churches who gathered, whose God is love. What is there to be afraid of? But it becomes clear that, from the point of view of the Americans, even Christianity becomes dangerous and aggressive as soon as it becomes Ukrainianised and Tomosified. The Americans need to believe: Ukraine is their project. They see better what should be expected from it.

So how did it happen that in December 2013, in the middle of the fight of “uprising people” against the “blood regime” of Yanukovych – when in Ukraine there were by-elections in the Rada in five districts, during which the opposition accused the authorities of falsifications, and the hundred-people units of Maidan even tried to protest near the Central Election Commission – the embassy wasn’t afraid for the citizens of the US and didn’t recommend to steer clear of Ukraine? And now, when “European democracy” won in the country and it became a part of the “civilised world”, every important political event causes irritable bowel syndrome in American diplomats.

The US knows perfectly well that in the course of Yanukovych’s toppling, the Maidan led by them also toppled Ukrainian statehood. All administrative structures and all law enforcement departments were discredited, and their work was paralysed for long time. The administrative apparatus still hasn’t been restored. On the contrary, several purges (lustrations) took place one by one, during which professionals were washed away from the top (and then also from the lowest) ranking positions in it, and dilettantes and marginals from Maidan, who realised their dream about raising their social status and only knew how to plunder, came in their place. Then the Ukrainian state offloaded the social function from itself and definitively turned into a huge gang — a cancer tumour on the body of society.

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But a gang differs from the most terrible dictatorship in that a dictatorship lives by the rules, obeys a master, doesn’t go beyond what is allowed, and as a last resort quickly corrects their error. Dictatorships under the control of the Americans try not to get involved with citizens of the US, even if the latter conducts subversive activities against them. They are simply transferred to the CIA or State Department so that the Americans deal with them themselves. And so the Americans deal with them.

But a gang practically isn’t controlled, and not only not by overseas sponsors, but also not by their own atamans. Today people obey this gang, but tomorrow they don’t; today this gang is extolled, but tomorrow it is vilified, and even taken away in a body bag. The Americans faced this in Afghanistan, Somalia, Syria, Libya, and in other places where the bandits who were raised and trained by them for their own purposes escaped their control and lunged towards their master. In all the listed countries the state structure were previously destroyed (formally by civil war, but in practice by the Americans). There was nobody to rein in bandits who weren’t controlled by anyone, so that’s why they committed what they wanted, without paying attention to whether or not it is an American who became their victim or a citizen of some other country – military or civilian.

In some countries a gang destroyed the state so that nobody prevented them from looting, in other countries they proclaimed themselves as a state in order to use the population’s habit to obey for more effective looting. Ukraine surpassed everyone – the state became a gang, having supplemented to itself independent (non-state) gangs of radicals. Moreover, the ratio of forces constantly changes in favour of the latter.

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According to gang psychology, power can’t be peacefully transferred to a more successful competitor. The gang keeps power up to the end and eliminates competitors before they eliminate it. The leader, of course, can surrender without a fight, having realised that the advantage of the competitor is absolute and that resistance is futile. But this doesn’t bode well for the leader. In order so that the leader doesn’t flirt with intrigue in the hope of returning to power, it is better to drive them away – and even better: to kill them – so that they don’t even think about returning.

Knowing all of this, as well as the fact that Poroshenko feels danger and is prepares himself to fight up to the end, the Americans warn their citizens about danger of being in the epicenter of a social explosion on March 31st, when the destiny of a person is decided not by their wealth, not by their insight, even not by their survival skills, but by pure chance. Another thing is that the Embassy could’ve and should’ve warned their citizens long ago about the fact that it is dangerous in Ukraine not only on election day, but also on any other day.

Nobody knows when precisely it will kick off and what the cause of it will be, but everyone understands that the situation is heated to the limit and that on any day, at the slightest reason, it can degrade into a direct standoff. An exchange of threats between the president and Minister of Internal Affairs already took place. Will Avakov keep his promise, and will he be able to keep order before elections and on election day? What in general is his reserve of strength? The Americans don’t know. They know that Poroshenko stands no chance, but nobody knows what will happen afterwards other than the fact that it will be much worse than it is now — the gang will definitively break free from its leash and will go to the races.

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