Why There Will Be No Revolution in Russia

Attempts to interpret Saturday’s protests on January 23rd as a blow to the system and the formation of a large-scale forceful civil protest overestimate the significance of the event and its consequences for the government and society. There are no people’s demands for the freedom of Navalny and political prisoners in the protest mass. This is a fantasy and an inadequate assessment of reality.

The vanguard of the protest and the protest mass are carriers of completely different political cultures, and because of this, the protests did not have any human rights character. People had a completely different feeling, and due to the lack of other channels of feedback from the authorities, they poured out what they had been carrying on their hearts for a long time. This is the first point.

The aggressiveness of the protests is based on the resonant coincidence of several motivations: the crisis, prices, fatigue, uncertainty. Prolonged stress. And even the strongest lumpenisation of the population since 1991 and up to now, regardless of whether it is an economic recovery or a recession. Moreover, all estates are lumpenised – from aristocrats to degenerates. And for this lumpenisation, for 25 years, our entire media-information-educational system has been working. This is the second point.

Society degraded along with the elite, and a counter-elite did not arise. There are no sufficient reasons for it to yet. No wars, no revolutions. Smooth existence, everything is stable and predictable. Everything is under control.

Young people are always protesting, and stupidly, spontaneously and unconsciously. In our time, we flocked to Moscow for the same rallies of Valeriya Novodvorskaya and her “Democratic Union” (who among those who are 50+ remembers this organisation?). Back then, too, the street was full of such pimply psychopaths and curious employees, and the crowd was rocked by provocateurs, who were dispersed by the police. And everyone shouted: “Fascist!” and “Shame!”. This was 1987. Nothing has changed.

READ:  UN Speech: Full House for Putin, Empty Seats for Poroshenko

And how many people have ruined their winter coats, splattering them with paraffin from candles at the procession of Sakharov’s funeral! We walked at night in the cold along Tchaikovsky Street, marvelling at the new sensations. Then after 20 years, they spat out of anger at themselves. But what can you do! Every generation of young people has a right to their own stupidity. Thank you to Comrade Yeltsin for our happy childhood.

No “democratic unions” with Novodvorskaya and Sakharov with Bonner unhinged the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. It was shattered by the Communists themselves. Navalny is the Novodvorskaya with Sakharov of our days. And he’ll end up the same way. And Yuliya, like Bonner, will go to live out her life in the US, but this pension still needs to be earned, and she is trying.

What outraged the youth of that time? The devil only knows, no one really remembers. Also some nonsense like the benefits of the party nomenclature and the old men in the Politburo. Back then, when the country disintegrated, there was no time for that. The current youngsters do not remember and do not know this, and the adults are so busy with themselves that they have long since forgotten their own stupidities.

The current protest does not have clear conscious demands and a specific program. It has no organisation and no leaders capable of articulating such demands. Even the protest leaders do not seek power. Their goal is a provocation, clearing the way for those about whom the country does not yet know. They will come out of the shadows when they consider Navalny’s task completed, and the degree of readiness of the elite to split is sufficient.

READ:  State Department's Sectarian Circus Comes to Paris & Berlin

The protest masses are heterogeneous in all social parameters. They want different things, and there is no mechanism to coordinate their demands in order to present a united front with united leaders. They can’t even formulate their claims to the authorities. This is not how revolutions or palace coups are done.

But this is how combat reconnaissance is conducted and the soil is probed for “readiness for sowing”. So they create a smokescreen of rumours that the government is already weak, that it is possible to get out of the underground and start gathering forces for an assault. Supporters should be intimidated, opponents should be encouraged. Society and the authorities must believe that a great force has come out against them and give up. If not all, then many.

The expectation is that many rats will escape from the ship ahead of time and infect others with panic. However, if the intensity of street emotions does not lead to the collapse of power – and it will not lead to it simply technically – then over time everything will go downhill. The protest will be exhausted.

A new cycle of protests will require a long preparation, and the problem is that Navalny’s mobilisation potential has already been exhausted. It is difficult to come up with new shocking stories for the public. Although this does not mean that the country will stop being destabilised.

Most likely, they will switch to other technologies, leaving Navalny out of the equation. Regional conflicts will become a new priority. With their help, they will try to do what Navalny failed to do — provoke a conflict in the elites. If this is successful, representatives of a completely different weight category will enter the case.

READ:  How Many Seconds “Kinzhal” Will Spend Flying to Different Cities in Europe

Aleksandr Navalny

Copyright © 2022. All Rights Reserved.