What Will Happen With Central Asia If a War Between the US and North Korea Starts

Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard



A change of Central Asian regimes for pro-American ones or at least the destabilization of Central Asia is extremely actual for the US in light of the preparation of aggression against Korea, the expert considers…

Rostislav Ishchenko, the President of the Center for Systemic Analysis and Forecasting, for Sputnik Kyrgyzstan.

The US are on the verge of war with North Korea (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea). China promised to stand up for Pyongyang if Kim Jong Un will not be the first to launch missiles against the Americans. Europe reasonably distanced itself from the brewing conflict that is capable of developing into a full-scale world war.

In order to decide to launch a strike against Korea, the US is missing only a guarantee of Russian non-interference in the conflict on the side of China. If NATO’s European allies wouldn’t cowardly run from the field of a potential nuclear conflict, but would show their willingness, similar to the fatalist Japanese, to die for the interests of the US, everything would be clear.

Europe strengthened by American troops would create tension on the western borders of Russia, the Baltic limitrophe and the Ukrainian bandits would writhe in hysterics, creating the eventual threat of a military attack and forcing to concentrate the Russian forces in the West. For a simultaneous war on two fronts Russia obviously doesn’t have enough forces, that’s why the US could feel rather comfortable in the Far East. And China would be obliged to think long and hard whether there is sense to act against America one-on-one. Of course, Americans won’t conquer it, and it will cause a lot of damage to the US, but the Celestial Empire also will suffer terrible human and economic losses. It will be immediately sent back to the era of the last years of the Manchurian dynasty (Great Qing).

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But Europeans evaded the “honor” to risk themselves for American interests, and so far the Americans didn’t manage to force them to change their mind. On the contrary, Europe more and more actively accuses the US of disregarding universal western values.

Thus, the US has a need to be at war. If there is no short victorious war with a strong and terrible, but harmless opponent, then America risks to roll down into civil war, which already nearly began in January-February in Washington and New York, and now inflames in the south of the US. External war must consolidate American society, to return to it its former monolithic character. And at the same time also to show their force to the United States.

That’s why in this case the nuclear-missile Democratic People’s Republic of Korea was chosen for the role of the victim, and not some unoffending Libya or Serbia. The enemy must be serious, the victims – considerable (but not critical), otherwise society won’t be impregnated with unity in front of danger.

But war mustn’t be long. Neither the economy of the US nor the mentality of Americans won’t be able to endure a long conflict. Therefore, China must be switched off from the scheme, as will be difficult to deal with it in just a month or two.

Meanwhile the destruction of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea will sufficiently undermine the prestige and authority of China in Southeast Asia, so that nobody can compete with American hegemony in this region. In order to effectively pressurise China, it is necessary, as was said, to deprive it of hope for Russian support.

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As Europe here is not an assistant, the only effective way remains a rupture of communications between Russia and China. For this there is a need to control Central Asia. Not its military destruction, not bombings, but precisely control.

It is impossible to destroy roads in steppes by bombing. It’s possible to simply bypass a destroyed place (and it even doesn’t take long to restore it). It is necessary to replace the political power with such a one that will close its space for communication between Russia and China. The Trans-Siberian Railway and Baikal–Amur Mainline are vulnerable from the territory of Kazakhstan. It also blocks communication through Mongolia. Thus, for a rupture of the Russian-Chinese communications the key requirement is control over Kazakhstan.

Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are important from the point of view of blocking the shortest communication paths in the triangle Russia-China-Iran (including in the southern way, through Afghanistan).

In this regard a change of the Central Asian regimes for pro-American ones or at least the destabilization of Central Asia is extremely actual for the US  in light of the preparation of aggression against Korea.

However, the factor of time in this case plays against the US. It is necessary to make a decision about war or peace in the next few days (at most – weeks). During this time the organization of a full-scale color revolution in at least one Central Asian State is technically impossible.

Especially as local systemic elite perfectly understands that, being in a triangle, although informal but allies (Russia, Iran, China), to be against them on the side of the unpredictable US is counterproductive. So to use ambitious members of this system is now difficult. It is necessary to prepare non-systemic opposition, which will stage not a palace coup, but a full-scale revolt. And this is long.

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Meanwhile the US tries to provoke Democratic People’s Republic of Korea into launching the first strike, because Beijing stated that if Pyongyang will begin first, then the People’s Republic of China won’t intercede for it. Washington can imitate aggression against itself. In any case, currently the growth of aggressive rhetoric and the deployment of American troops brings the US towards the spontaneous decision to risk and strike North Korea, despite the unpreparedness of the battlefield (Theatre of Military Operations).

If the US will risk it (and it will be clear in the next few weeks), however military operations develop, Central Asia will be placed outside of their brackets (except for the Russian-Chinese military transit). Its destiny will be decided by the winner within the framework of a new global order.

If the US will nevertheless decide to postpone their aggression against Korea and to better prepare the Theatre of Military Operations for a short victorious war, having maximally excluded the possibility of Russian and Chinese interference in the conflict, in the next few months the rocking of the situation in all without exception Central Asian States will begin. Including by means of transferring aggressive Islamists from Libya, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan (all places where they now they suffer defeat).

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