Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard
The source of RT in the administration of the Ukrainian President called the statement of the Director of the US National Intelligence Agency about possible early elections in Ukraine a warning to Petro Poroshenko. According to the American side, corruption, the decrease in the population’s standard of living, and the disappointment of Ukrainians in the speed of reforms can serve as the catalyst for this process. However, experts consider that Poroshenko won’t allow the holding of elections in which his victory won’t be ensured. The material of RT is about the signals to the head of the Ukrainian State for the start of the presidential race.
The Director of the US National Intelligence Agency Dan Coates in the report “Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community” stated that he doesn’t exclude the carrying out of early elections in Ukraine.
“Popular frustrations with the pace of reforms, depressed standards of living, perceptions of worsening corruption, and political polarization ahead of scheduled presidential and legislative elections in 2019 could prompt early elections,” noted Coates.
It is the leaders of the opposition who will try to benefit from the discontent of the population, it is said in the report. According to the Center for social research “Sofiya”, 76% of Ukrainians don’t approve of Petro Poroshenko’s actions. He is fully supported by only by 3.3% of the population.
However, the Director General of the Centre for Political Information Aleksey Mukhin considers Coates’ report as an attempt to hide the intention of Washington to replace the Ukrainian President.
“Early elections in Ukraine take place under pressure from outside, and not as a result of internal processes. Probably, with this report US intelligence tries to hide the true state of affairs,” stated Mukhin in a conversation with RT.
“This is a signal”
The source of RT in the Administration of the President of Ukraine reported that Petro Poroshenko was upset and considers the public announcement of possible re-elections as a warning.
“This is a ‘yellow card’ for Petro Poroshenko. Pressure on him is being strengthened. European and American envoys non-publicly say that they won’t support Poroshenko in the 2019 presidential elections. But they understand that they practically have no alternative,” said the interlocutor of RT.
Experts note that relations between Poroshenko and the western partners of Ukraine have had better times.
The meeting between the special representative of the US State Department concerning Ukraine Kurt Volker and the leader of the “Fatherland” party Yulia Tymoshenko on February 6th is considered by the Presidential Administration as one more warning for Poroshenko.
“Today, I met Yulia Tymoshenko to discuss how UN peacekeepers could promote the restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine, and also the important role of the Ukrainian parliament in the realisation of Minsk,” commented Volker on the meeting with Tymoshenko.
Also, he noted that the “freezing of the conflict” in the east of the country mustn’t be allowed.
“This meeting is a signal that during the 2019 presidential elections the US can give support to another candidate, and not to Petro Poroshenko,” stated the source of RT in the Presidential Administration.
According to experts, in Ukraine preparation for the presidential race already started, and the expulsion of Mikheil Saakashvili from country is one piece of proof of the beginning of the pre-election fight.
It is the environment of Petro Poroshenko that tried to obtain Saakashvili’s deportation, said the Director of the center for public and information technologies “Forum” Valery Dymov to the site “24”.
“Saakashvili plays long term. He uses the situation – political crisis – in order for it to obtain a big public-political scale. He can’t run for presidency. But at parliamentary elections he can become a leader,” stated Dymov.
Thus, the extradition from the country of the former governor of Odessa region oddly coincided with Yulia Tymoshenko’s trip to the US, experts note.
According to the source of RT in Poroshenko’s environment, the President is seriously concerned by Tymoshenko’s support from western curators.
As the source of RT in the “People’s Front” party said, a strategy for how Petro Poroshenko will achieve victory is being developed in the Presidential Administration.
“It is the co-leader of the Opposition Bloc Yury Boyko who must reach the second round together with the acting president. So then the population as well as western partners will support the acting head of State. Well, it won’t be possible to vote for the pro-Russian representative? But political strategists don’t take into account that the population is so disappointed that it can act against Poroshenko,” notes the representative of “People’s Front”.
According to the interlocutor of RT, the statement of the Prosecutor-General Yury Lutsenko made on February 7th – that investigators have no direct proof of the purchase in 2011 of drilling platforms for the “Chernomorneftegaz” company at inflated prices – is connected with “a stake being placed on Boyko” . Earlier Yury Boyko, who headed the Ministry of Fuel and Energy at this time, was suspected of receiving profit when purchasing two orders for the sum of $400 million.
“Poroshenko is ready for any steps”
Experts unanimously note the influence of the US on Ukrainian politics and the role of Ukraine in the geopolitical affairs of America.
Ukraine is in the sphere of interests of the US, stated the source of RT in the “Samopomich” party.
“In fact, the hot spot is the situation on the border with Russia. And here the interests of the US coincide with the interests of the Ukrainian leadership, for which it is favourable to wage a war. That’s why nobody finishes military operations, but on the contrary, additional weapons are being transferred to the country,” argues the interlocutor of RT.
Strategically, Ukraine is as important as Korea, Dubai, or Kuwait, stated the senior defensive adviser of the US Stephen Silverstein on February 13 in an interview with “112.ua”.
The American policy in relation to Ukraine can be characterised as the full inversion of the actions of the Kremlin, stated the head of the Kiev center of political research and conflictology Mikhail Pogrebinsky in a conversation with RT. Its main idea can be formulated as: “The most important thing is that Putin doesn’t win”, stressed the expert.
“Most likely, this fact (possible early elections) was noted in the report to show the attitude of the US towards the current Ukrainian authorities. Also, it should be added that in the report there is no update of the situation in Ukraine. The report has a strategic character and medium-term prospect,” emphasised Pogrebinsky.
Poroshenko won’t allow the carrying out of any elections in which he won’t be confident, commented the professor of the Higher School of Economics Oleg Matveychev in a conversation with RT.
“Poroshenko is ready to take any steps in order to prolong being the President, including destabilising Donbass and introducing martial law. However, the new administration of Trump considers Poroshenko to be in line with the Democratic party in the US, that’s why it can consider the option of transit replacement,” noted the expert.
According to him, such an operation was already done with Mikheil Saakashvili in Georgia. At the same time, Saakashvili himself could become this transit replacement for Ukraine, stressed the expert, and Poroshenko, foreseeing this, decided to remove him from the political field of the country.
According to analysts, Poroshenko doesn’t have a lot of prospect for elections, and, most likely, he will lose in them. That’s why the only option for him is to hold onto power at all cost. It’s unlikely that something good awaits Ukraine in the near future, considers Matveychev.
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