Zelensky’s Catastrophe: The US Will Punish Ukraine Anyway

On August 29th Telegram and the media are wondering about the reasons for the “revision” of US military aid to Ukraine that Western sources, and in particular Politico, wrote about.

I want to upset those who want to see it as a step towards Russia. This is not a story about Russia at all, but a story about “Ukrainegate”. As recently as last week, readers of my column got acquainted with the reasons why the Trump administration would pull Zelensky in different directions.

The most influential US publication, The New York Times, reports that President Zelensky of Ukraine has a task that is fundamentally impossible to solve in such a way as to remain intact. A theme that seemed forgotten powerfully returns to the American information space: “Ukrainegate” literally haunts President Zelensky and not only comes up at the most inappropriate moments, but also seriously spoils the diplomatic prospects of the Kiev government in terms of relations with the Trump administration. “Ukrainegate” should be looked at from both sides simultaneously, because in the fascinating game “Who will scare the Zelensky administration more?” two strong rivals with diametrically opposite interests participate. Let’s give the floor to journalists first.

“Months after backing out of a trip to Ukraine amid criticism that he was mixing partisan politics with foreign policy, Rudolph W. Giuliani, President Trump’s personal lawyer, has renewed his push for the Ukrainian government to pursue investigations into political opponents of Mr. Trump.

Over the last few weeks, Mr. Giuliani has spoken on the phone and held an in-person meeting, in Madrid, with a top representative of the new Ukrainian president, encouraging his government to ramp up investigations into two matters of intense interest to Mr. Trump.

One is whether Ukrainian officials took steps during the 2016 election to damage Mr. Trump’s campaign. The other is whether there was anything improper about the overlap between former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s diplomatic efforts in Ukraine and his son’s role with a gas company there.”

Now let’s look at the same situation through the eyes of Trump’s personal lawyer and former New York prosecutor Rudy Giuliani:

“I believe that The New York Times is attacking me because I can point to their hypocrisy in covering up prima facie (i.e. having sufficient evidence to proceed with a trial or judgment) of Biden ‘s bribes aimed at the former President of Ukraine. Also, there is no report on the only proven interference of foreigners in the 2016 elections in the framework of the Clinton campaign – which happened in Ukraine. The New York Times hides a real scandal,” he wrote in a personal Twitter post [which has seemingly been deleted – ed] .

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One cannot help but notice that it is impossible for Zelensky and his team to get out of this whole story in such a way as not to make very serious enemies in Washington. And, by and large, the choice facing him and his team is who he decides to turn into his “political blood relative” – Donald Trump’s team or the leaders of the US Democratic Party. By the way, according to the information of the high-ranking sources of the New York newspaper, the Democrats do not let the situation take its course and Congressman Hoyer, the leader of the democratic majority in Congress, has already personally informed representatives of Zelensky’s team, which Giuliani is squeezing, that they should not cooperate with him.

So active secret manoeuvres are connected to the fact that the stakes in this game of politics are very high: Joe Biden is the leader in terms of popularity among Democrat presidential candidates, he may well win the Democrat party primaries, and he (according to many American political scientists) is one of the few Democrat candidates who can win over neutral or hesitating voters. If Rudy Giuliani brings Joe Biden’s political scalp to Donald Trump, it will be a very significant factor in Trump’s 2020 election victory. Biden’s withdrawal from the race and the overall image damage that will be caused to the Democrat Party by the development of “Ukrainegate” (the Democrats themselves rocked the issue of the inadmissibility of external interference in the elections by the example of “Russiagate”) will give the current president such an electoral head start that it will be very difficult to play. All these considerations are obvious not only to Giuliani, but also to the Democrat establishment, which is making behind-the-scenes and media attempts to sabotage the investigation into Bide ‘s “Ukrainian adventures”.

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The natural, one can say, traditional solution for the Ukrainian political elite is to “play a multi-vector game” and try to delay the resolution of the issue until the US elections, when it becomes clear which American politician’s shoes should be wiped with the Ukrainian flag and who should be sworn eternal loyalty until the next election. The only problem with this approach is that both sides of the Washington confrontation are not patient and polite, and as the election approaches, the squeeze on Zelensky will be stronger and stronger. And if the “multi-vector game” continues, then his team (and Ukraine as a whole) can immediately receive political and diplomatic black eyes from both the Republicans and Democrats, because American politicians will not try to seduce Zelensky with gifts and promises (fortunately, such unproductive ways of interaction were abandoned in Russia, and in the United States it was never practiced at all), And now they are moving on to threats that they will not hesitate to carry out. From the New York Times article one can even roughly draw up a list of painful points that the Democrats and Republicans can exploit in varying degrees: blocking military aid to Ukraine, cancelling high-level meetings (for example, Zelensky’s personal visit to Trump may not take place unless Biden’s case continues), depriving diplomatic support in the “peace talks” on the Donbass crisis.

As Rudy Giuliani himself says, and he, like many American prosecutors specialising in “working with the Mafia”, has passed on to his students the ability to formulate threats so that they do not have to be answered in court: “When you face such a decision, you (anyway) will piss someone off. So you could make the right decision, right?”

The problem is that a truly correct decision can no longer be made: the time when Ukraine could still hope for political subjectivity and independence from the domestic political intrigues of the American empire has already gone.

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